By Wafa Amr RAMALLAH, West Bank, July 11 (Reuters) - Hamas's violent takeover of the Gaza Strip a month ago has created two separate Palestinian administrations whose schism is likely to persist for some considerable time. Officials in Gaza and the larger West Bank, and Palestinian and Israeli analysts, hesitate to predict how long it may last. Key factors may be the relative ability of the rival leaderships to offer security and prosperity and pressure on leaders to restore a common front in negotiations on statehood with Israel. The Hamas Islamist movement, whose leader in Gaza Ismail Haniyeh still considers himself the Palestinian prime minister, has said he is ready for dialogue with President Mahmoud Abbas, leader of the secular Fatah faction, who appointed an emergency government in the West Bank under new premier Salam Fayyad. Abbas, whose dismissal of Hamas ministers on June 14 secured an end to Israeli and Western sanctions on his administration, says he would talk but rejects Haniyeh's conditions. He insists he cannot forgive the Gaza "putschists" and has lent the Fatah stance a personal edge by accusing Hamas of trying to kill him. "There are two contradictory facts on the ground, one in the West Bank and the other in Gaza. The status quo, reflecting confusion and division, is likely to continue for some time," a senior Abbas aide told Reuters in the West Bank. Many Palestinians in both territories are dismayed that the split may undermine efforts to resume negotiations with Israel on establishing an independent state in the West Bank and Gaza. Both factions appear intent on showing Palestinians they can govern their area better than their rivals, a competition in which Israeli and international attitudes may play the key role. In the Israeli-occupied West Bank, Fayyad has received long-withheld tax and customs revenue from Israel but has not yet secured an easing of military checkpoint controls and other hindrances to movement that local residents would prize highly. RELATIVE CALM In Gaza, Hamas and the population are almost entirely cut off. The end of faction fighting that culminated in a week of bloodshed in June has, however, cast the Hamas takeover in a positive light for many Gazans, at least for the time being. But Hamas leaders complain the international embargo is not giving them a chance to run an administration that was elected fairly 18 months ago. They accuse some in Fatah of colluding with Israel against them, and activists of each faction in the territory controlled by the other say they fear arrest or worse. Ahmed Youssef, an adviser to Haniyeh, is one of many Hamas leaders stressing their willingness to talk: "Abbas' move unilaterally to declare an emergency government in the West Bank is a political gamble doomed to fail. The rational choice is to engage with Hamas," Youssef wrote in Israel's Haaretz newspaper. The West says Hamas must accept Israel and give up violence before it will deal with the Islamists, whose election win many put down to anger at years of graft and drift under Fatah. Some Palestinian officials believe Israel may try to prolong the separation by alternately aiding Abbas and easing conditions in Gaza as part of an effort to weaken Palestinian negotiators. Although Prime Minister Ehud Olmert insisted this week that Israel would be "stupid" not to foster Palestinian unity, Palestinian officials point to Israel's only gradual transfer of tax funds to Fayyad and military operations against militants in the West Bank as evidence that the Jewish state wants continued leverage over Fayyad to thwart any move to detente with Hamas. "The only beneficiaries of the division are the Israelis," Israeli analyst Menachem Klein said. "Israel wants to exploit the division between Gaza and the West Bank." FORCED TOGETHER? Two possible routes to reunify Palestinians are elections and the use of force by one faction or another. Analysts see few opportunities to organise fair elections in both territories at once and question whether either faction would accept a defeat. Renewed violence is a fear, but few think either group can defeat the other -- Fatah forces were routed in Gaza, while Hamas faces not just Fatah but Israeli troops in the West Bank. In the longer term, analysts see no alternative to talking to end the paralysis: "The only way to end the crisis is through dialogue" said Palestinian political analyst Hani al-Masri. "There is a need to agree on the basics." Some believe only outside intervention can bridge the gap. U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice will visit next week along with fellow members of the Quartet of international powers. Also expected soon is Tony Blair, the former British prime minister charged by the Quartet with bolstering the Palestinians' ability to govern themselves and negotiate. Masri said he believed that in time, the two factions would see their common interests are served by cooperation: "Agreement is difficult but possible once some time has passed -- and after the warring sides become aware they're getting weaker and that the (Israeli) occupier is the only beneficiary."
