By Christian Lowe MOSCOW, Feb 20 (Reuters) - Russia opposes a NATO-backed proposal to set Serbia's province of Kosovo on the road to independence but may accept a trade-off on its future in return for other concessions, diplomats and analysts believe. Senior figures in the country's foreign policy establishment insist that if pushed, Russia will use its veto in the United Nations to halt the Kosovo plan, risking confrontation with the United States and the European Union. Kosovo is a sensitive issue for Moscow as Serbia is a historic ally bound by common Slav cultural and religious ties, though Russian backing for Belgrade in World War One swung to hostility under Soviet dictator Josef Stalin. In 1999, Russia attacked NATO's plans to bomb Serbia and tried to mediate but, weakened by domestic political turmoil and an economic crisis, backed away from outright confrontation. The U.N. plan may give President Vladimir Putin a chance to demonstrate his increasingly assertive foreign policy. But analysts and Western diplomats say the final outcome is more likely to be a trade-off. "I think some kind of deal is possible," said Fyodor Lukyanov, editor of the journal Russia in Global Affairs. "Putin has no desire for that sort of escalation of tensions with the United States." After eight years under international supervision since NATO forces moved in to stop an ethnic conflict, Kosovo's status has been brought to a head by a proposal by U.N. envoy Martti Ahtisaari to give the province a large degree of independence. Ahtisaari says his plan will go to the U.N. Security Council for approval, possibly within weeks, even if Belgrade remains implacably opposed. The Kremlin has consistently said any plan must be acceptable to Serbia and believes things are moving too fast. "What is needed is to patiently continue the work of bringing the two sides' positions closer," said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov. "Otherwise, if we try to force through one solution or another, ignoring one side or another, then in effect we will not solve the problem but create it in a new dimension." Peskov said it was "too early to talk about" whether Russia would use its Security Council veto. But influential Russian foreign policy figures say that it will do so if necessary. OBLIGED TO USE VETO "I hope that our partners have the wisdom not to insist on taking this to the Security Council because in that case Russia and China will be obliged to use their vetoes," Konstantin Kosachyov, the pro-Kremlin head of the foreign affairs committee in the lower house of parliament, told Reuters. The Kremlin has warned that giving Kosovo independence would set a dangerous precedent, encouraging separatists across Europe to press their own claims for statehood. Some Europeans worry that Moscow could use autonomy for Kosovo as a precedent to push independence for Kremlin-backed separatists in the ex-Soviet republics of Georgia and Moldova. Uprisings there in the 1990s led to de facto autonomous regions which have not been recognised internationally. The resulting stalemate has been dubbed the "frozen conflicts". "The international community considers that ... Kosovo cannot become a model which can be applied to conflicts in Georgia," German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier said while visiting Georgia on Monday. Kremlin-watchers see that outcome as unlikely. "If they (Russia) wanted to give the frozen conflicts independence, they could have done so already," said a Western diplomat. Russian officials insist they have no interest in creating tiny new independent states which would generate instability. Lukyanov said Russia's real interest is that Kosovo offers an opportunity to highlight Moscow's new-found confidence on the international stage, underwritten by its growing oil wealth. "Russia, with all its actions, starting with Kosovo ... is trying to shout: 'Enough. We are back. If you think you can do everything without us, forget about it. That's all over.'" For now, Russia's tactics are to delay while trying to ensure it is at the heart of international decision-making on the province, said the Western diplomat. "What they want is more time. They don't see the rush," said the diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity. He said the ultimate price for Russia agreeing to the Kosovo plan could involve deals on Iran or North Korea, where Moscow is trying to resist a U.S.-led push for tougher sanctions. "In the end, the Russians will want a trade-off," he said.
