ANALYSIS-How dangerous is Lashkar-e-Taiba to the west?
08 Jul 2009 11:28:10 GMT Source: Reuters
By Myra MacDonald LONDON, July 8 (Reuters) - Should the west be worrying as much about Lashkar-e-Taiba as al Qaeda? The group blamed for last year's attacks on Mumbai has a formidable training and logistics infrastructure, and a global network of sympathisers used to raise funds for its Jamaat-ud-Dawa (JuD) charitable wing. That makes it a danger not just to India -- which is demanding action against the Laskhar-e-Taiba (LeT) as the price for resuming peace talks with Pakistan -- but also a potential threat to the west given its strong base and global reach. "Al Qaeda does not command those kinds of resources any more," said Praveen Swami at Indian newspaper the Hindu. Based in Pakistan's heartland Punjab province, the group was once nurtured by Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) to fight India in Kashmir. But a rare decision to target westerners and Jews along with Indians in the Mumbai attacks has added to worries the group might eventually turn its sights on the west. "The attitude of the United States towards the LeT is quite different from what it was before," said Kamran Bokhari, Middle East director for global intelligence company Stratfor. Analysts who have studied the LeT say, however, that the group remains very much focused on India and Kashmir. "India is still the number one enemy, but LeT's priorities are shifting, or at least expanding," said Stephen Tankel, at the International Center for the Study of Radicalization and Political Violence in Washington. Tankel, who is working on a book on the LeT, said it was "clearly now folding westerners and Jews into terrorist attacks in India" as well as fighting U.S.-led forces in Afghanistan. "But this is still different from planning and prosecuting an attack on British soil or American soil," he said. THE ACADEMIC INFLUENCE Born out of a group founded by university professor Hafiz Saeed to fight the Soviets in Afghanistan, the LeT was dubbed by one analyst as "the thinking man's jihadi group". Even after 9/11 it initially managed to stay under the radar of western governments because of its focus on Kashmir, while its refusal to hit targets inside Pakistan allowed it to retain a strong base there despite being formally banned. But the attitude of western governments towards the LeT has been changing, fuelled by worries about it training western recruits in bomb-making or helping them make their way through Pakistan to join al Qaeda. The charitable work of the JuD -- from aiding victims of the 2005 Kashmir earthquake to helping refugees in Pakistan's northwest -- also gives it a global network of sympathisers and fund-raisers in the Pakistani diaspora, analysts say. And while there is no evidence the LeT might be about to launch Mumbai-style attacks on London or New York, a major concern is that its network could be used by other groups. "Rather than necessarily acting as the lead agency in an attack on the U.S. or U.K. homelands -- they could make their network available to al Qaeda or another actor looking to prosecute attacks in the West," said Tankel. The other big worry is that the LeT would go rogue, breaking up into splinter groups that would move beyond its focus on India to attack both Pakistan and the west. Some hints of that showed up in the Mumbai attacks, in which 10 gunmen killed 166 people in a three-day assault. According to western government sources and security analysts, the Mumbai attacks provided clear evidence of LeT involvement, mainly through intercepts. Yet few believe the ISI as an institution would have condoned an attack that targeted westerners and Jews -- suggesting the LeT might be slipping out of its grasp. And the LeT's own denial of involvement has added to questions about whether parts of the group are no longer fully under the control of LeT founder Saeed. Analysts say speculation has centred on a possible rift between Saeed and LeT commander Zaki-ur-Rehman Lakhvi. "They were not seeing eye-to-eye for some time," said Samina Yasmeen, a professor at the University of Western Australia who is writing a book on the LeT. Quite how far LeT cadres are slipping out of control both of Saeed's leadership and the ISI is an unanswered question. But it is worrying enough to give pause for thought about how far and how quickly Pakistan should be pushed to act against the LeT, given the risk of losing control of it altogether. One western diplomat said if the ISI fully turned against the LeT, it could become even more dangerous to the west. And given its strength in Punjab, a rogue reincarnation of the LeT could be the ultimate nightmare for Pakistan. "It would not just be dangerous for the west. It would be dangerous for everyone," said Yasmeen. But Indian journalist Swami, who says the LeT's logistical and ideological infrastructure has turned it into a powerful transnational organisation, is sceptical. "The ISI control argument has been made time and time again," he said. "This has the great convenience of being an untestable proposition." "As long as the infrastructure is there, sooner or later somebody is going to do something," he said. (Editing by Janet Lawrence) (For an earlier analysis on the LeT please see http://www.reuters.com/article/homepageCrisis/idUSLL367886._CH_.2400)
Security personnel surround British Foreign Secretary David Miliband (C) during his visit to the UNHCR (United Nations High Commission for Refugees) Yar Hussain camp in Swabi district, located about 120 km ...
