ANALYSIS-Soviet past haunts Baltics despite NATO summit
23 Nov 2006 15:20:00 GMT Source: Reuters
By Patrick McLoughlin RIGA, Nov 23 (Reuters) - Estonian Prime Minister Andrus Ansip vowed this week to remove a prominent and divisive symbol of the Soviet era in his country -- a heroic bronze statue of a Red Army soldier, square-jawed, muscular, battle-ready. President Vaira Vike-Freiberga of neighbouring Latvia was forced last weekend to publicly deny accusations that she once had ties to Russia's KGB secret police. Across the border in Lithuania, relations with Moscow remain raw after it expelled a Russian diplomat in October for spying. Welcome to the Baltics, 15 years after the break with Kremlin rule; three nations bordering Russia which despite EU and NATO membership and strong democratic and economic development are in many ways locked in Cold War thinking. Latvia hopes that playing host to the first NATO summit on ex-Soviet soil will change all that. On Nov. 28-29, its capital Riga will open to 26 NATO heads of state, including U.S. President George W Bush, and 5,000 guests for a truncated meeting of the military alliance. Latvian President Vike-Freiberga has hailed the summit as a chance to sweep away final bitter memories of Soviet dominance in Latvia. "This has never been Soviet soil. This has always been Latvian soil," she said as she toured summit grounds Thursday. This declaration followed a veiled warning to East European nations from Russian President Vladimir Putin, who wrote in the Financial Times earlier this week that they risked new rifts by treating Russia as an enemy rather than a strategic partner. Some observers think the summit could fan tensions with Russia, which still sees the region as its back yard, if leaders raise NATO expansion, especially for other former Soviet states. "Ukraine and Georgia ... moving towards joining NATO would probably not improve relations with Russia since Latvia is hosting the summit," says Latvian lawmaker Nil Ushakov. While the Baltics look increasingly westward, with NATO seen as a road to that future, an inconvenient truth is that many historical and cultural ties still bind them to the east. Tsarist Russia controlled most of the region for centuries until World War One redrew the map of Europe and gave the Baltics brief independence. After World War Two, Communist Russia ruled, often brutally, until the Iron Curtain fell. The Baltics won independence in the early 1990s, but a close and often thorny relationship with Moscow remains. Former Lithuanian Foreign Minister Povilas Gylys says the constant flow of anti-Russia rhetoric in the Baltics is souring relations and risks becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy. "If we speak about conflict with Russia all the time we will get one finally," said Gylys, a university professor in Vilnius. OIL PIPELINE CUT Russia still ships a large chunk of crude oil destined for European markets through the Baltics, but supplies to Lithuanian refinery Mazeikiu Nafta were abruptly cut off this year. The shutdown was blamed on an oil leak, but supplies have not resumed. Analysts say Moscow wanted revenge after Mazeikiu was sold to Polish group PKN rather than a Russian-backed rival. The problem of dealing with an oil-rich and increasingly assertive Russia is compounded from within. The Baltics have big Russian-speaking minorities still mostly loyal to Moscow. In Riga, Russians make up 40 percent of the 750,000 population. Many speak only Russian, read Russian papers, watch Russian TV and regard Putin as their leader. "They are aware of (Latvian) President Vike-Freiberga but they watch Russian television and are proud of President Putin," says Natalia, an office worker who asked not to be named. For its part, Latvia bars those who do not pass official language and history tests from becoming citizens and voting. This has sparked anger in Moscow, which rails against claims the rights of Baltic Russians are being violated. School reforms have made pupils use more Latvian. Russians claim discrimination, a view disputed by Latvian speakers. "We let them live here and they don't even feel like speaking or learning our language," says Guntars Laivins-Laivnieks, 22, student. The Baltic presidents, talking the language of expansion for NATO, earlier this month called for it not to close its doors to aspiring ex-Soviet states. They mentioned Ukraine among others. The reality is that membership will not top the summit's agenda -- although expanding NATO's global influence will. Some say not aggravating Russia at a particularly sensitive time, in its old back yard, may be wise. "If anything happened to Latvia, NATO would not (care)," says 43 year old Genadijs. "Putin would fill the sky with fighter planes and stand up for us. He is a strong leader."
