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ANALYSIS-Military unrest adds to Ivory Coast poll problems
02 Dec 2008 14:44:12 GMT
Source: Reuters
By David Lewis and Ange Aboa

ABIDJAN, Dec 2 (Reuters) - Feuding rebels and pay protests in Ivory Coast's new mixed army are creating a security headache that could threaten preparations for an already long-delayed presidential election in the world's No. 1 cocoa grower.

The vote on who should rule the West African state in the wake of a 2002/2003 civil war was due to have been held on Nov. 30, but has been postponed to next year because voter registration and disarmament were not completed in time.

At the weekend, former rebels who still control the north of the country were restoring security in the west after a clash with dissidents in their ranks who tried to seize an armoury. Nine soldiers, eight of them dissidents, were killed.

Recently, newly-integrated national army units have blocked major roads in pay disputes and 100 soldiers loyal to President Laurent Gbagbo are on trial over a mutiny in September.

Registration of voters for the now postponed elections was already way behind schedule, with only 1.5 million of an estimated seven million eligible voters signed up.

As the process of disarming thousands of former combatants from the war lags badly, dissent has been growing among the soldiers who are now meant to provide security for the polls.

"There is quite a lot of concern about people trying to whip up disgruntled groups," said an Abidjan-based diplomat.

"The lack of clarity on (disarmament) is a major obstacle, both for the process overall and for the politicians themselves. No one wants to take the first step or be responsible for unpaid, discontented troops," the diplomat added.

Under a March 2007 peace deal which saw the northern New Forces rebels join a transition government under Gbagbo, former rebel fighters are due to disarm and either join the new army or return to civilian life.

Several thousand former fighters have officially joined the process but many remain under arms and rebel commanders say the funds to carry out a successful demobilisation are not there.

"There is a lack of funds," New Forces deputy military chief Issiaka Ouattara "Wattao" told Reuters. "That is why (disarmament) is behind schedule. Otherwise we might have already finished it."

The rebels complain it is still unclear how many fighters will join the new army and what ranks they would have.

PROFIT FROM STATUS QUO

However, critics such as resource watchdog Global Witness have long accused the Ivorian rebels of profiting from the status quo. In a 2007 report, the group estimated the rebels had been earning around $30 million a year from illicit cocoa taxes.

Moves to restore centralised tax collection have stalled despite the 2007 pact signed in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso. Analysts see splits among the rebels between those who have profited from the peace deal and those who have not.

Sporting jewellery and a gold watch, as well as a pair of pistols, "Wattao" sat in front of a Porsche Cayenne luxury four wheel drive vehicle in the pot-holed western town of Seguela and rejected accusations of benefitting from the uncertainty.

"No one is happy ... If I was happy with the situation I would not have signed the Ouaga accord," he said. He added last week's armoury clash at the western cocoabelt town of Seguela showed why his men needed to maintain their weapons.

There have been few big battles since the war left the country divided. After the 2007 deal, French and United Nations peacekeepers pulled out of a buffer zone between the two sides.

In recent weeks, Ivory Coast's army chief General Philippe Mangou has disarmed nearly 800 pro-government militia in the south and vows to do the same in the west.

Pro-Gbagbo politicians have warned that those disarmed must be looked after properly and say the rebels must also lay down their weapons.

"Elections would be pointless without disarmament," Pascal Affi N'guessan, the president of Gbagbo's Ivorian Popular Front party, said in a statement.

Opposition politicians fear the lack of disarmament may be used by the president to further delay polls and extend his term in power, which was originally due to end in 2005.

A new national military command body, the Integrated Command Centre (CCI), was set up and a planned mixed force of 25,000 -- 20,000 from the government side and 5,000 from the rebels -- is due to take over security duties across the country.

This, too, has been plagued by delays and the integrated force stands at just 500 men. Soldiers from the CCI blocked two major roads in the interior last week in a row over months of unpaid wages and food allowances which was eventually settled.

Diplomats fear the problems, if allowed to escalate, could threaten next year's vote, for which no date has been set yet.

"The good thing about elections being delayed is that they have another chance to find some trust, take the plunge and start to find solutions. Will they? I'm not sure," one said. (For full Reuters Africa coverage and to have your say on the top issues, visit: http://africa.reuters.com/) (Editing by Pascal Fletcher)


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Sand is piled on at the site of the Bonikro gold project, about 240 kilometres north-west of Abidjan, November 21, 2008. The Bonikro mine is the Ivory Coast's newest and biggest ...



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