(Adds three more analysts' comments) ABUJA, Dec 12 (Reuters) - Nigeria's Supreme Court upheld the election of President Umaru Yar'Adua on Friday, giving him the mandate to lead Africa's most populous nation through a global financial crisis and tumbling oil prices. [ID:nLC341823] The court rejected challenges from his two closest rivals in last year's polls who, along with foreign and local observers, alleged widespread vote-rigging in the April 2007 election. ANALYST COMMENTS RAZIA KHAN, REGIONAL HEAD OF RESEARCH AFRICA, STANDARD CHARTERED "I suppose it's positive because it helps to get rid of any political uncertainty. There has been a lot of thinking about whether this will provide the trigger or prove to be the impetus for more faster, accelerated reform in Nigeria, which has been noticeable by its absence, but I'm not sure there is consensus among analysts that is necessarily going to be the case." "I think for most people it will be seen to reinforce the situation that was widely expected to continue, so it does give the Yar'Adua government that much more legitimacy in terms of there being a legal ruling in its favour, but I don't think in terms of practical steps it necessarily changes all that much." "Is it a given that now that we've got more political certainty, we are going to see faster reform? I think that's where the uncertainty lies and that's what markets are going to be watching very carefully, especially in the context of the pressures Nigeria now faces, lower oil prices, the possibility of further OPEC oil cuts being announced next week, how Nigeria might be placed to comply with that, and the pressure that we've seen really symptomatic of the bigger economic picture revealed in what has happened to the foreign exchange rate." ANTONY GOLDMAN, ANALYST, PM CONSULTING "It is a victory, but not exactly a ringing endorsement of a process that everyone knew was widely flawed." "I think the practical reality is that in that portfolio of pressing factors on government there are a whole host of reasons why government in Nigeria, and this government, moves slowly and I suspect that it's as likely that the pressure of the external challenges in the environment might accelerate policymaking more than the court ruling." "What the judges said or didn't say wasn't going to give legitimacy or popularity anyway. That comes from Yar'Adua in government and that is a challenge the government has to meet." "It draws attention again to that tension between how much energy and resources are devoted to how to get into power in Nigeria compared to what you do once you get there." SAMIR GADIO, FINANCIAL ECONOMIST FOR SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA AT RENAISSANCE CAPITAL "It's not a surprise. It should provide enough political momentum to push for structural reforms. I think in that sense it's important because 2009 is going to be a relatively difficult year for Nigeria, given falling oil prices." "I don't think there is such a strong relationship between the speed of reforms and the election (challenge) issue. Frankly, we all knew that the Supreme Court was going to confirm the ruling that it issued in February, so the pace of reforms is something else." "Yar'Adua was elected in April, 2007, so it's been almost 19 months. I think the president is willing to implement a lot of progressive measures, but the bureaucratic machine in Nigeria is such that it takes a long time and you have a lot of political interests that you have to factor in to your decision process as head of state." "So clearly, I think that even in Nigeria many people feel that it's taking too long." "Surprisingly, it may be that the difficult situation in 2009 will push the government to speed up the process, because for example they might have to start the privatization process in order to address the budget shortfall." "That is a big issue, and they won't be able to raise money externally. Well, they might be able, but it is going to be very tough given current global conditions." LEON MYBURGH, SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA SPECIALIST AT CITIGROUP "Just from an investment point of view it does remove some elements of uncertainty, but from an external point of view the developments in the currency market have by far dominated current thinking and concerns..." "I think this does help to remove one level of uncertainty out of Nigerian policy making, clearly because if there had been a successful challenge to his presidency it would have had major repercussions for policy continuity." "And as it is, Yar'Adua has been criticised for acting too slowly. Whether this is necessarily going to speed up the process, I'm not sure ..." "At the end of the day, actions speak louder than words." "I think what Yar'Adua did do with the budget was probably a very positive sign, in that they readjusted the budget to accommodate the lower oil price, that they decided not to tap into the oil savings as part of the budget, I think that was also very positive." "And the fact that the presidency did show the flexibility to drop the oil price all the way down to $45 (per barrel crude oil benchmark price), I think was a very positive move for the economy." BISMARCK REWANE, HEAD OF LAGOS-BASED CONSULTANCY FINANCIAL DERIVATIVES LTD "The judgment did not come as a surprise, anything different would have been too destructive for Nigeria. The decision is not bad for business. There is a major challenge now for the administration to deliver on their campaign promises." "There would be no excuses for non-performance. The administration has to perform and we will evaluate them based on what they do with the economy and other things, especially in tackling the financial crisis facing Nigeria and the rest of the world." (Reporting by Pascal Fletcher and Tume Ahemba) (For full Reuters Africa coverage and to have your say on the top issues, visit: http://africa.reuters.com/)
Nigerians displaced by religious clashes seek refuge at a displacement centre in the central city of Jos, November 30, 2008. Residents delivered more bodies to the main mosque in the city ...
