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INSTANT VIEW 5-Russian president orders stop to Georgia ops
12 Aug 2008 12:17:49 GMT
 Source: Reuters
Aug 12 (Reuters) - Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said on Tuesday he had ordered troops to stop military operations in Georgia before he was due to meet French President Nicholas Sarkozy for peace talks in Moscow.

Following are comments from political, economic and security analysts.

ABDULLAH GUL, PRESIDENT, TURKEY

"We see Russia's decision to stop military operations in Georgia as a positive development. I hope we see a ceasefire confirmed by the two sides as soon as possible. Implementation of this decision is very important."

"Turkey will continue its efforts for the reinstitution of peace and stability in the region. We attach importance to Georgia's territorial integrity and sovereignty."

"A Caucasian stability pact idea is important in the medium term. We have similar efforts in Middle East too."

JONATHON HAYES, ANALYST, JANE'S STRATEGIC ADVISORY SERVICE

"Russia's next steps will be to push for the recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia."

"The loss of these regions would be an end to (Saakashvili's) political career, so impending negotiations over the breakaway regions will be extremely difficult."

"Georgia is clearly the major loser here. However, American power and its perception throughout the world has also suffered.

"Russia wins well beyond what is going on in Georgia. President Putin struggled for eight years to make Russia into an international player, but most Moscow was powerless to move against U.S. and European policies in the past (missile defense, NATO expansion, Iraq war, and Putin perceives the recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia as a tit for tat response to the western recognition of Kosovo)."

"Putin saw this as an erosion to Russian power. This conflict allowed Russia to demonstrate its military might, but even more so, its willingness to utilize it."

SVANTE E. CORNELL, CO-DIRECTOR, INSTITUTE FOR SECURITY AND DEVELOPMENT POLICY, STOCKHOLM

"It's clear that at least for the foreseeable future the outcome of this conflict has been Russia's annexation... of South Ossetia and Abkhazia."

"(Georgia) has also seen a tremendous blow to its economy and potential to attract investment and a humanitarian tragedy, but it's too early to say that Georgia has only lost."

"There is a little soul searching to do on the part of European countries in particular... What's been shown is the West's utter inability or unwillingness to protect allies."

"For the United States, for its credibility as a partner across Eurasia has been severely damaged. There is no country in which the United States has invested so much political capital as in Georgia in this part of the world."

EDWARD PARKER, HEAD OF EMERGING EUROPEAN SOVEREIGNS, FITCH

"Obviously any ceasefire would be a start towards reconciliation but it would depend what conditions were attached and of course what happens next."

"But it wouldn't make an immediate difference to their rating. It doesn't look very good for Georgia. Going to war with Russia is bad for your creditworthiness, to put it mildly."

VLADIMIR OSAKOVSKY, EMERGING MARKET STRATEGIST, UNICREDIT

"We expect very positive market reaction to the effective end of military action and potential movement towards diplomatic resolution of the conflict, as the likelihood of further escalation of armed conflict has eased."

"However, we need to emphasize the crisis is not over yet... We continue to believe the conflict is very unlikely to end in a new freeze into the quiet military standoff that has persisted since 1992, as such solution is unacceptable to both sides."

ANDY SOMMER, OIL MARKET ANALYST, HSH NORDBANK

"It is a little bit of good news because the situation there can be relaxed a bit and some stopped supplies from Kazakhstan and Turkey can be shipped again soon. Oil from Ceyhan is distillate-rich so it is a good news.

But it is not such a big thing that the market is going to react significantly. The oil market has not even reacted to the supply disruptions from Ceyhan. So we may not see a big change."

MICHAEL DENISON, RUSSIA EXPERT, CHATHAM HOUSE THINKTANK, LONDON

"I think probably the element of international concern has played a part. What we don't know as yet are the dynamics of Russian internal politics. I'm sure there was a fairly intense debate going on behind the scenes in the Kremlin."

"I would not expect a very strong or unified EU response in relation to this ... What we will find with increasing intensity is a sort of 'What to do with Russia?' conversation, but that's been doing on since 2004."

"It's highly unlikely now that South Ossetia will come back to Georgia ... I think what these conflicts have pretty much sealed their fate (of South Ossetia and Abkhazia)."

"They've acted as insulators against the resumption of Georgian control unless there is a very intensive diplomatic track which works very consistently and rapidly towards a solution here, but I think that's unlikely."

VIKTOR CHUMAK, MILITARY ANALYST, AT THE INTERNATIONAL CENTRE FOR POLICY STUDIES, KIEV.

"Ceasing fire today doesn't make a difference. Russia has already achieved most, 80 percent, of what it wanted to achieve. It only did not achieve a regime change. Russia has shown precisely that it is in control of the southern Caucasus. It has consolidated its position." "NATO countries did not have a uniform stance on Georgia's and Ukraine's NATO membership and Russia took advantage."

"This is a very serious issue for Ukraine. We are thinking very seriously what it means for Ukrainian politics." "As long as Ukraine is not a NATO member Russia can do as she pleases. This situation could repeat itself in the (pro-Russia) Crimean region. Maybe not today or tomorrow but in a year or two or three."

ULRICH LEUCHTMANN, STRATEGIST, COMMERZBANK CORPORATES & MARKETS, FRANKFURT:

"It's very positive news for the rouble because the Georgian crisis was the only argument for the rouble weakness we saw in the last couple of days. With the crisis seemingly gone the rouble should recover from the losses it suffered."

"Certainly there will be a slightly higher risk premium to Russia, because the market normally remember such higher volatility periods for quite a while. But if the immediate political and military risk is gone, there could also be a recovery (in equities)".

DENIS KEEFE, BRITISH AMBASSADOR TO GEORGIA, ON BBC TV:

"If this news that military operations are stopping is correct, then that it what this country needs and we can then get on to build peace.

"This is a beautiful place with a wonderful people. They don't deserve the suffering that has been inflicted by military operations."

MICHAL THIM, ANALYST, ASSOCIATION FOR INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS, PRAGUE: "We have to wait and see if this is implemented.

"Russia militarily and politically achieved what it wanted. In all that time, apart from some verbal criticism, it has not met any sharp or fundamental reaction from the United States nor Europe.

"The EU council of ministers is only meeting tomorrow and it was Russia's interest to put them in front of a final state of affairs which they seem to have achieved.

"It would be tactically disadvantageous for Russia to continue in its actions during that meeting given that they had achieved what they wanted.

"The attacks on the territory of Georgia and the military action outside the areas of conflict discredited Russia and I cannot see how Russia wants to defend the role of an arbiter, a neutral player in those conflicts.

"EU ministers should agree on changing the negotiating formats for the conflicts in Ossetia and Abkhazia. The role of Russia can no longer be that of an arbiter of these conflicts.

NEIL SHEARING, EMERGING MARKETS ECONOMIST, CAPITAL ECONOMICS

"We'll see a bounce in stocks. We saw the currency bounce back this morning.

"Nonetheless, investors will remain cautious for some time. This is just yet another in a long line of events that have raised political risk levels in Russia.

"Last month we had Putin making some fairly ominous warning sounds on OAO metal, a mining conglomerate, and hinting at the fact that they may have some tax irregularities, ominous overtones that are reminiscent of what happened with YUKOS."

"and that is coupled with the fact that the economy is actually overheating. I think investors will remain cautious, but we will see a bounce in all asset classes over the coming days and weeks."

(Reporting by Reuters bureaus)


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A man from Georgia waves a Georgian flag during a demonstration in front of the Russian Embassy in Prague August 12, 2008. He is protesting against Russia's military campaign in Georgia. ...


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Last updated:Tue Aug 12 12:20:25 2008