ANALYSIS-Algerian insurgents seeking out new targets
17 Aug 2009 09:57:41 GMT Source: Reuters
* Al Qaeda-linked militants mount attacks outside stronghold * New tactic "may be a sign of militant weakness" * Insurgents drop tactic of suicide bombings By Lamine Chikhi ALGIERS, Aug 17 (Reuters) - Al Qaeda's North African wing has begun striking outside its stronghold east of the Algerian capital in a display of strength that may, in reality, show that security forces have the insurgents on the run. Islamist militants, who for nearly two decades have been waging a campaign of bombings and ambushes in Algeria, have in the past few years concentrated their attacks in the so-called "triangle of death" around the mountainous Kabylie region. But a spate of attacks since June by militants operating under the banner of al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) have targeted areas previously considered relatively safe. "AQIM has no choice but to do its best to leave the Kabylie region. By doing so, it gives the impression that it is strong," said Rachid Boussiafa, deputy editor at the Echorouk daily. "The reality is that AQIM is weak, and it is fighting for its survival," he told Reuters. The violence in oil and gas producer Algeria has lessened significantly since the 1990s, when a conflict between Islamist fighters and the government killed 200,000 people, according to estimates from international non-governmental groups. Analysts say security forces have been gaining in strength, and the militants' ranks have been thinned by a policy of granting amnesties to fighters who lay down their weapons. But AQIM remains a potent threat. The spate of attacks outside the group's stronghold included an ambush on a major highway near Bordj Bou Arreridj, 180 km (110 miles) east of Algiers, that officials said killed 18 paramilitary police. A month later, the group killed at least 14 soldiers in the province of Tipaza, 50 km west of Algiers. In both attacks, unconfirmed reports put the death toll substantially higher. "It is a fairly common pattern in counter insurgency to get a displacement effect," said Henry Wilkinson of Janusian, a security consultancy. "An enemy displaced by security forces will try to strike back where the security forces are weaker." He said the attacks also fit a pattern whereby AQIM meets periodic government crackdowns with a spectacular response to reassert its status. NEW MILITANT STRUCTURE The locations of the attacks, and the audacity in which they were carried out, certainly grabbed attention. The ambush in Tipaza brought the violence to a peaceful region to which residents of Algiers flock at weekends to use the beaches. At least one European embassy responded by ordering its staff not to travel to Tipaza, one diplomat said. "There has been a redeployment of al Qaeda forces over the territory with the focus on regions which used to be seen as safe such as Tipaza and Bordj Bou Arreridj," said Boualem Ghomrassa, a security analyst with El Khabar newspaper. The tactics deployed by al Qaeda's North African wing have been evolving in other areas too. Two sources close to the security forces told Reuters the group had revamped its structure, scrapping the previous system of nine geographical zones, each with a commander or "emir", in favour of a streamlined system with four zones. The group also appears to have decided to drop its previous tactic of mounting suicide attacks because the civilian casualties were alienating supporters. Suicide bombings were AQIM's preferred method in the past two years. In one of the worst attacks, a twin suicide bombing at U.N. offices and a court building in Algiers on Dec. 11 2007 killed at least 41 people. But there have been no recorded suicide attacks for months. The insurgents have instead focused on ambushing convoys of troops or police using roadside bombs and firearms. "Suicide attacks in which tens of civilians are killed are counter-productive for AQIM'S image," a security service source, who asked not to be named, told Reuters." "Several fatwas (Islamic religious edicts) banning suicide attacks have been issued," the source said. (Editing by Alison Williams)
