* Guerrilla-style attacks likely to continue * Niger Delta militants divided * Details of amnesty deal key By Austin Ekeinde PORT HARCOURT, Nigeria, June 18 (Reuters) - Guerrilla-style attacks on exposed oil infrastructure in Nigeria's Niger Delta may spread in the coming weeks but the militants are divided, with some ready to negotiate an amnesty, security experts say. The military launched its biggest offensive in at least a decade against armed gangs in the delta's creeks last month, using helicopters, gunboats and battalions of ground troops to hunt down suspected militants around the western town of Warri. But the campaign was targeted against one gang leader, Government Tompolo, who has grown rich from the theft of industrial-scale quantities of oil, undermining his credentials as a rebel fighting for the interests of local communities. The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND), the region's main militant group, has claimed a series of attacks on oil facilities since then and pledged that a "hurricane" of destruction will blow across the region. But security experts say that in reality, the latest strikes have been carried out by Tompolo loyalists smarting from the military offensive, and that other factions of MEND are less willing to rush to his defence. "They seem to be on the run. We could see more smaller guerrilla attacks in the Niger Delta as they regroup," one private security contractor said of Tompolo's followers. Most of the attacks since the military offensive have been against U.S. energy firm Chevron's <CVX.N> operations in Delta state, in the area immediately around "Camp 5", Tompolo's base which was destroyed by helicopter gunships last month. MEND says this makes a mockery of the military's claims to control the area. But industry experts say it is virtually impossible to prevent opportunistic attacks on hundreds of kilometres of pipeline running through remote mangrove creeks. Suspected militants attacked a Royal Dutch Shell <RDSa.L> pipeline in Bayelsa state late on Wednesday and clashed with security forces in Akwa Ibom, near the Cameroon border, the first unrest outside Delta state since the military offensive. Security and industry sources said Tompolo loyalists again appeared to be behind the attack on Shell. [nLI310768] PROPAGANDA WAR A loose coalition of armed groups operate under the franchise of MEND, a nebulous organisation which emerged in late 2005 but which has largely failed to carry out any attacks as spectacular as those of its early days, when it knocked out almost a quarter of Nigerian output in a matter of weeks. When oil markets were jittery and global prices were near record highs, an email from MEND's Yahoo account threatening an attack was enough to push world energy prices even higher. But the oil market has largely shrugged off the latest unrest, pricing in all but the most dramatic disruption to Nigerian supplies and concentrating instead on the global economic crisis, inventories and demand in consumer nations. MEND's efforts to grab headlines and retain international relevance are nothing if not colourful. In one of its emails claiming an attack this month it declared the military commander in the Niger Delta, Major-General Sarkin-Yaki Bello, a wanted man. "The obese general is advised to lose weight before reporting to Camp 5 annex since the entrance gate is quite narrow and he'll find it an unpleasant experience if we have to squeeze him through it using crude oil as a lubricant," it said. But the public bravado masks deeper divisions. Militant leader Ateke Tom, who has had links with MEND, said through his lawyer on Tuesday he would consider participating in a federal amnesty programme if the military halts its offensive and withdraws its troops from the Niger Delta. [ID:nLG850456] Tom's lawyer said most militants wanted a peaceful solution after years of fighting, adding too many civilians had died. President Umaru Yar'Adua is expected to unveil an amnesty programme in the coming days, considered a key step to bringing stability to the OPEC member country's oil heartland. But the devil will be in the detail. Security experts say the militants are likely to demand the release of MEND's suspected leader, Henry Okah, who is on trial for treason and gun-running, as well as evidence of concrete steps to reintegrate them into civilian life. (For full Reuters Africa coverage and to have your say on the top issues, visit: http://africa.reuters.com/ ) (Writing by Nick Tattersall and Randy Fabi; Editing by Giles Elgood)
Residents ride in the back of a van as they flee with their farm products out of Odi town in the Bayelsa State, Niger-Delta region, May 27, 2009. Nigeria's Warri refinery ...
