* Kyrgyzstan holds presidential election * Incumbent expected to win * Stability key as West, Russia watch closely By Maria Golovnina BISHKEK, July 23 (Reuters) - Kyrgyzstan, pivotal to U.S. military efforts in nearby Afghanistan, votes on Thursday in a presidential election which will be watched closely for any signs of unrest that could disturb peace in Central Asia. From its nomadic settlements in the north to the ethnically divided south, Kyrgyzstan's 2.7 million voters will cast ballots between 0200 GMT to 1400 GMT in a poll certain to extend incumbent Kurmanbek Bakiyev's rule by another five years. Kyrgyzstan is a Muslim nation at the heart of Russian-U.S. rivalry in Central Asia and it has become important due to its proximity to Afghanistan. Both Moscow and Washington now operate military bases on its mountainous territory. Its stability is vital to efforts to stop the spread of radical Islam as a surge of violence in Afghanistan sends ripples of uncertainty across the former Soviet region, political analysts say. Elected in 2005 in a poll seen as free and fair by Western observers, Bakiyev is now accused of cracking down on dissent. The opposition has vowed to stage protests in case of fraud. "If they try to steal votes on the election day, anything may happen," the main opposition challenger, Almazbek Atambayev, told Reuters ahead of the vote. "I will be with those who come out to defend their votes." The administration said it was doing everything to ensure the vote was fair and transparent. Bakiyev's steps to tighten his grip on power and a string of mysterious attacks on politicians and journalists in the runup to the election have caused concern among voters. "People are unhappy, things have been difficult with the crisis and there is a feeling Bakiyev is not doing anything," said Ilkhom, a man selling consumer goods at a market in the city of Osh. "Authorities are blind, all they want is bribes." ISLAMIST MILITANTS In the past months, Kyrgyz forces engaged in gunbattles with militants that authorities have described as Islamist rebels. Security was tight across Kyrgyzstan ahead of the vote, with 5,000 officers on high alert and extra measures enforced in the potentially restive border areas in the Ferghana Valley. The Interior Ministry said on the eve of the vote its forces had confiscated more than 300 illegal guns and ammunition in special operations across the country. Kyrgyzstan sprung to the top of Washington's regional policy as the Obama administration decided to send 21,000 more troops to Afghanistan to fight the Taliban -- a process in which the U.S. Manas air base in Kyrgyzstan plays a key logistical role. Kyrgyzstan and the rest of Central Asia, largely peaceful since 2005, have been volatile in past weeks as fighting intensified in the adjacent areas of Afghanistan and Pakistan. Some security analysts believe the surge of U.S. troops in Afghanistan, and Pakistan's offensive against militants in tribal areas, may have forced Taliban fighters of Central Asian origin to trickle back into the former Soviet region. Critics have accused Bakiyev of using the Islamist threat to bolster his re-election chances and win concessions from the United States and Russia. As the geopolitical game unfolded, Bakiyev's unpredictable foreign policy puzzled his partners. Bakiyev in February said he would evict U.S. forces from Manas but later changed his mind and allowed the United States to keep the base. He is now in talks with Russia to open a military training hub in Kyrgyzstan. "Bakiyev's presidency is increasingly hard for international partners to deal with as he has grown into the shoes of an autocratic president who is good at playing off conflicting interests," IHS Global Insight said in an analytical note. Bakiyev came to power in 2005 after he charmed the West with promises of democracy following a wave of violent protests that unseated his long-serving predecessor, Askar Akayev.
Opposition supporters hold posters and the U.S. and Georgian state flags during a rally in Tbilisi July 22, 2009. U.S. Vice President Joe Biden arrived in Georgia on Wednesday on a ...
