By Wangui Kanina NAIROBI, Dec 23 (Reuters) - Somalia's government and the international community must deal with Islamists to avoid a security crisis when Ethiopian troops withdraw later this month, a think-tank said on Tuesday. Ethiopia has provided military support for Somalia's weak, Western-backed transitional government since December 2006 but has been the target of near daily attacks by an Islamist insurgency that controls most of the country's south. More then 10,000 civilians have been killed during the two-year insurgency, a million people uprooted and a third of the population need emergency aid in a humanitarian crisis that has been described as one of the worst in the world. In its report, "Somalia: To Move Beyond the Failed State", the International Crisis Group (ICG) argues that Ethiopia's withdrawal may offer a chance for a credible political process. "Despite the reluctance of the international community to engage with the Islamist opposition, there is no other practical course than to reach out to its leaders in an effort to stabilise the security situation with a ceasefire and then move on with a process that addresses the root causes," ICG said. Ethiopia invaded its neighbour to prevent the Islamists from gaining strength. Now frustrated by the lack of political progress in Somalia and the international community's failure to send more peackeepers, Ethiopia insists it will now withdraw. There is little chance enough peacekeepers will arrive in Somalia to prevent a power vacuum, leaving the capital Mogadishu at the mercy of an Islamist insurgency that is not taking part in a now-floundering U.N.-hosted peace process. NEW PRESIDENT? ICG said opposition to the Ethiopian occupation has been the single issue on which many elements of the fractious Islamist insurgency could agree, boosting its nationalist appeal as the interim government has fast been losing support. "When that glue is removed it is likely that infighting will increase making it difficult for the insurgency to obtain military victory or at least sustain it, creating opportunities for political progress," the report said. The decision to pull out comes at a time the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) is on the verge of collapse, due to a deep rift between President Abdullahi Yusuf and the man he sacked as prime minister, Nur Hassan Hussein. Washington and the European Union have sided with Hussein and countries in the region have called for immediate sanctions to be imposed on Yusuf for hindering the peace process. "Yusuf hampers any progress on peace, has become a liability and should be encouraged to resign," the ICG said. There is growing speculation in Somalia that Yusuf may take that step very soon -- and plunge the anarchic Horn of Africa nation into a new chapter of chaos. (Editing by David Clarke and Michael Roddy)
A Burundian peacekeeper from the African Union Mission to Somalia (AMISOM) treats an elderly Somali man at their base in Somalia's capital Mogadishu, December 22, 2008. Nigerian troops are expected to ...
