Reuters AlertNet Full site
Homepage | Newsdesk | NGO Latest | Crisis briefings | Country profiles | MediaWatch | Jobs | Alerting | Login

NEWSDESK

Q+A-What might happen next in Iran?
28 Jun 2009 15:40:41 GMT
 Source: Reuters
TEHRAN, June 28 (Reuters) - Iran's leaders have weathered the biggest anti-government protests since the 1979 Islamic revolution, but the tumult over a disputed presidential election has exposed deep splits in the ruling elite.

Here are some questions and answers on possible next steps in the Islamic Republic, the world's fifth biggest oil exporter, whose nuclear programme has alarmed the West and Israel.

WHAT OPTIONS ARE LEFT FOR THE OPPOSITION?

Not many. Riot police and religious basij militia have quelled mass demonstrations since Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei signalled on June 19 they would not be tolerated.

The Guardian Council has deemed the election the healthiest since the revolution and ruled out any annulment, as demanded by Mirhossein Mousavi, the runner-up in the June 12 poll.

The Council, which must rule on the result of the poll, is due to give its final word on Monday.

Hundreds of opposition activists, academics, journalists and others have been swept into detention, leaving protesters leaderless and unable to coordinate any coherent strategy.

It is hard to see scope for more legal challenges, short of attacking the position of the Supreme Leader himself.

Former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, a Mousavi ally, chairs the Assembly of Experts, which has the constitutional power to depose Khamenei. It has never tried to do so.

Rafsanjani, seen as a possible mediator in the election row, on Sunday praised Khamenei's decision last week to extend a deadline for the Guardian Council to examine objections by defeated candidates and urged the council to do a thorough job.

Symbolic protests may continue.

After dark, some people are still chanting "Allahu Akbar (God is greatest)" from their rooftops, mimicking tactics used during the 1979 revolution, but the nightly cries are weakening.

There has been talk of other forms of civil disobedience, including strike action, but these have yet to materialise.

HOW CAN THE LEADERSHIP SHORE UP ITS POSITION?

By blaming the West and repressing any more dissent, judging by its recent actions.

Now the street protests have fizzled, Iranian officials have been sowing the message that the unrest was the work of menacing foreign powers, notably the United States and Britain.

Khamenei on Sunday denounced interference by "international ill-wishers", a day after President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad vowed to use his second term to make the West rue its meddling in Iran.

The hardline leaders, backed by the elite Revolutionary Guard, could crack down harder on Mousavi, fellow-candidate Mehdi Karoubi and others still contesting the election result.

But this might further harm the legitimacy of Iran's hybrid blend of republican institutions and religious rule, disquieting senior clerics who have stayed mostly on the sidelines.

SO IS IT ALL OVER?

Not really. The crisis over the election could still have far-reaching repercussions. Ahmadinejad has proved one of Iran's most divisive figures. Khamenei's open support for him has eroded the concept of the Supreme Leader as impartial arbiter.

Influential conservative politicians such as ex-police chief Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf and parliament speaker Ali Larijani may yet work against Ahmadinejad in the months to come.

A crucial test will come when the president, due to be sworn in between July 26 and August 19, picks his new cabinet. It will need the approval of the conservative-dominated parliament, which has repeatedly rejected some of his past choices.

WHAT ABOUT OBAMA'S HOPES FOR DIALOGUE WITH IRAN?

Down but not out. Immediate prospects for any such dialogue seem dim, but U.S. President Barack Obama's policy still aims at eventual engagement on the nuclear and other issues.

Western governments are in a quandary. They might not like Ahmadinejad, but still share important interests with Iran in promoting stability in neighbouring Afghanistan and Iraq.

And while the world watches the ferment in Iran, the centrifuges enriching uranium are still spinning -- to fuel nuclear power stations, as Iran says, or to acquire the knowhow to make atomic bombs, as the West suspects.


AlertNet news is provided by
Email this article       Send comments

NGO latest

•  U.S. Policy Harms Women, Families
Women's Commission - USA

•  Church World Service's McCullough urges honest talk about tough West Africa issues
CWS

•  CWS's Jessica Eby to speak at refugee rights and policy conference
CWS

•  UMCOR Hotline for June 16, 2009
UMCOR - USA

•  UMCOR Hotline for June 16, 2009
UMCOR - USA

MORE >>

Latest news

•  Q+A-What might happen next in Iran?

•  Key Afghan presidential candidate courts female vote

•  US general: Time right to withdraw from Iraqi cities

•  Iran sparks new row with Britain over election

•  US general: Time right to withdraw from Iraqi cities

MORE >>

AlertNet news is provided by

Background information

Facts & figures
Iran United States of America United Kingdom Palau

Related articles

Breaking stories
 Q+A-What might happen next in Iran? (1 minute ago)

Key Afghan presidential candidate courts female vote (1 minute ago)

AlertNet insight
 Climate change, wars could sink aid system - Oxfam (1 minute ago)

Aid agency news feed
 U.S. Policy Harms Women, Families (1 minute ago)

Blogs
 Climate adaptation funding proposed by Britain must be spent wisely (1 minute ago)

Maps
 MAP: Swine Influenza (as of 29 Apr 2009) - Location Map (1 minute ago)


Del.icio.us Del.icio.us  |   Digg Digg  |   NewsVine NewsVine  |   Reddit Reddit   
Thumb for /thefacts/imagerepository/RTRPICT/2009-06-27T170727Z_01_IST02_RTRIDSP_2_TURKEY-IRAN_mainimage.jpg|/thenews/pictures/IST02.htm
Thumb for /thefacts/imagerepository/RTRPICT/2009-06-26T064057Z_01_AXC04_RTRIDSP_2_CANADA_mainimage.jpg|/thenews/pictures/AXC04.htm
Thumb for /thefacts/imagerepository/RTRPICT/2009-06-26T062829Z_01_AXC03_RTRIDSP_2_CANADA_mainimage.jpg|/thenews/pictures/AXC03.htm
Thumb for /thefacts/imagerepository/RTRPICT/2009-06-26T062222Z_01_AXC02_RTRIDSP_2_CANADA_mainimage.jpg|/thenews/pictures/AXC02.htm
Thumb for /thefacts/imagerepository/RTRPICT/2009-06-26T061810Z_01_AXC01_RTRIDSP_2_CANADA_mainimage.jpg|/thenews/pictures/AXC01.htm

Turkey-based Iranian residents, who are supporters of Iranian opposition leader Mirhossein Mousavi, hold pictures of a woman identified by protestors as Neda Agha Soltan during a protest in Ankara June 27, ...


More pictures | Galleries
Disclaimers |  Copyright |  Privacy |  Contact Us |  Feedback |  About Us |  RSS XML

Last updated:Sun Jun 28 15:42:27 2009