July 30 (Reuters) - Policymakers and investors are trying to assess the possible economic impact of the H1N1 swine flu virus, subject of an official pandemic alert issued on June 11 by the World Health Organisation. Below are estimates of the economic output loss that might be caused by flu pandemic. For Reuters analysis, click on [ID:nLU648612] * The World Bank estimated in 2008 that a flu pandemic could reduce worldwide gross domestic product (GDP) by anything from 0.7 to 4.8 percentage points in year one, depending on the extent to which the pandemic mirrors the mild one of 1968/69, moderate one of 1957/58 or severe Spanish flu outbreak of 1918-19. MILD MODERATE SEVERE percentage points versus baseline in first year World -0.7 -2.0 -4.8 High income -0.7 -2.0 -4.7 Developing -0.6 -2.1 -5.3 East Asia -0.8 -3.5 -8.7 Europe and central Asia -2.1 -4.8 -9.9 Middle East and Nth Africa -0.7 -2.8 -7.0 South Asia -0.6 -2.1 -4.9Deaths, in millions: 1.4 14.2 71.1 More on: http://siteresources.worldbank.org/EXTAVIANFLU/Resources/EvaluatingAHIeconomics_2008.pdf * Australian independent think-tank Lowy Institute for International Policy (Warwick McKibbin and Alexandra Sidorenko) estimated in 2006 that global GDP loss could be anything from 0.8 and 12.4 percentage points percent versus the baseline scenario, with the worst-case scenario (a higher mortality rate than even the Spanish flu pandemic) wiping $4.4 trillion off global economic output. MILD MODERATE SEVERE ULTRA percentage point loss versus baseline in first year United States -0.58 -1.38 -3.00 -5.50 Japan -1.00 -3.34 -8.26 -15.77 Europe -0.72 -1.88 -4.31 -8.03 China -0.70 -2.15 -4.76 -9.06 India -0.63 -2.06 -4.90 -9.34 More on link below: http://www.lowyinstitute.org/Publication.asp?pid=345 * Investment advisory company BMO Nesbitt Burns World -2.0 -6.0 Losses in $: World 1.1 trillion 3.2 trillion of which (billions $) -United States 220 670 -Eurozone 165 490 -Japan 70 220 -Britain 30 100 -China 140 420 -India 60 190 -Africa 40 100 More on link below: http://www.bmonesbittburns.com/economics/reports/20060313/report.pdf * European Commission CENTRAL SCENARIO EXTREME (percentage points in year one) EU-25 -1.6 -3.3 More on: http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/publication_summary716_en.htm Other key references: *U.S. Congressional Budget Office report http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/72xx/doc7214/05-22-Avian%20Flu.pdf *Asian Development Bank: http://www.adb.org/Documents/News/2005/nr2005169.asp*International Monetary Fund: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/afp/2006/eng/022806.pdf (Editing by Patrick Graham)
A man with a suspected case of H1N1 influenza virus waits outside Miguel Couto hospital in Rio de Janeiro July 23, 2009. The flu strain has killed 29 people in Brazil, ...
