ANALYSIS-Fickle Pacific Canada an election wild card
01 Oct 2008 22:01:45 GMT Source: Reuters
By Allan Dowd VANCOUVER, British Columbia, Oct 1 (Reuters) - For a man whose Conservative Party is well ahead in the polls, Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper had an unusual message for supporters of the Liberal Party in British Columbia: please don't vote for the left-wing New Democrats. The Pacific coast province has a history of protest voting, and Harper seemed worried that Liberal supporters, turned off by party leader Stephane Dion's weak campaign, would maintain that tradition by jumping to the smaller New Democratic Party. "The message here is very simple. If you don't want a Liberal government, you should vote Conservative. If you vote NDP you're probably voting for a Liberal government," Harper said during a recent visit to Vancouver. Polls show the Conservatives are leading in British Columbia, with the left-leaning New Democrats and the main opposition Liberals fighting it out for second. The fledgling Green Party trails in fourth. The Conservatives hope to avoid a repeat of the 2006 election, where they won nationally but actually lost ground in British Columbia, and ended up with a minority government in the House of Commons. They now hold 18 seats in the province, compared with 10 New Democrats, seven Liberals and one Green -- a former Liberal who last month became the Green Party's first federal lawmaker in North America. Some national polls show the western-based Conservatives have a shot at winning a majority on Oct. 14, but if seats the Liberals now hold in British Columbia go to the NDP they would have to rely on gains in Ontario and Quebec, two regions that may remain lukewarm to the Tories. The Liberals warned last election that the only way to stop Harper was for NDP supporters to vote strategically for the Liberals. This time, NDP leader Jack Layton has been telling British Columbians the situation has reversed. "The choice is only Stephen Harper or Jack Layton. Period," he told a Vancouver rally that capped off an unusually long three-day swing through the province late last month. Liberals in the province acknowledge they are struggling with the perception of Dion's schoolboy demeanor and the unexciting campaign, but they believe their traditional supporters will remain faithful on voting day. University of British Columbia political scientist Fred Cutler, a polling expert, believes even more voters are thinking strategically in this election, though it is too early to say which way they are going. "I found that comment by Harper a little odd. I don't think we're at a point yet where the NDP is ahead of the Liberals, and where otherwise Liberals supporters will vote NDP unless they are in a small handful of ridings," Cutler said. Added to the mix this year is the Green Party, which has a much higher profile this time around under national leader Elizabeth May -- former head of the Sierra Club of Canada. And it has Blair Wilson running for re-election under the Green banner in West Vancouver. Environmental issues often have a higher profile in British Columbia than in the rest of Canada. It is the birthplace of Greenpeace and has North America's only comprehensive carbon tax to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. But the provincial tax, brought in this summer, has proven unpopular at a time of already high fuel prices, and the Conservatives and New Democrats have used that against Dion's call for a similar federal carbon levy. May disputes suggestions that the Greens might end up helping Harper by taking votes from the Liberals or NDP, saying her party is also winning over Conservatives upset with the prime minister's weak environmental policies. Cutler believes that the growing support for the Greens will fade by election day, with voters upset with the Conservatives going back to their traditional parties. (Reporting Allan Dowd, editing by Rob Wilson)
