(For full coverage of Honduras crisis, see [ID:nN22361272]) By Patrick Markey TEGUCIGALPA, Oct 1 (Reuters) - The de facto government in Honduras and ousted President Manuel Zelaya remained deadlocked on Thursday over how to resolve the crisis triggered when troops toppled the leftist in a coup three months ago. The caretaker government is under pressure to lift an emergency decree that suspended civil liberties and shut two media outlets loyal to Zelaya, who has been holed up in the Brazilian embassy since sneaking back into the country last month. The Organization of American States is to send a mission to Honduras next week and a top OAS official says there are signs the two sides will talk. But the two leaders are sticking to their key demands: the de facto government headed by Roberto Micheletti says Zelaya must face criminal charges and insists elections set for November will resolve the crisis. Zelaya, ousted in a June coup, demands he must first be restored to power. Here are some of the possible outcomes of the standoff: MICHELETTI GIVES GROUND ON DECREE, BUT STALLS TO ELECTIONS Micheletti has hinted he could lift his emergency decree following widespread criticism outside Honduras, and he has met with the Supreme Court to discuss it. He could lift the decree to present it as a concession. Micheletti has now eased off a deadline giving Brazil an ultimatum to decide whether to hand over Zelaya or give him asylum by early next week or face closure of its embassy. But despite pressure from his coalition to cede power, Micheletti insists Zelaya's return is unconstitutional, as would be a coalition government allowing a power-sharing deal. He says the de facto government can hang on until after Nov. 29 elections. Micheletti may see an advantage in OAS divisions over Honduras. The United States and Canada have proposed dropping Zelaya's return as a precondition for recognizing elections and Washington seems to have ruled out trade sanctions for now. Holed up in the embassy, the Zelaya camp is sticking to its demand that the ousted president must be restored to power. DEAL EMERGES, MICHELETTI STEPS DOWN OR IS SIDELINED The OAS has not managed so far to negotiate a deal. Its role seems limited as some within the de facto government's coalition reject the role of the region's top diplomatic body. Instead they call for a "Honduran solution" to the crisis. Micheletti's decree has riled powerful business interests and presidential candidates trying to secure legitimacy from the international community. The de facto leader says he is willing to step down to advance a solution. "There is something brewing. Some kind of negotiation is more possible than a few days ago," said Kevin Casas-Zamora at the Brookings Institute think tank. "The game changer was the exceedingly clumsy decision to enact the state of siege." But any return of Zelaya must involve some form of amnesty and restrictions to appease his critics who are unlikely to trust him to cede the presidency. Though Micheletti rejects the idea, business leaders are talking of a return for Zelaya but under strict controls, such as house arrest and with no executive power. "The odds of a compromise in which Zelaya is brought back and the standoff ends are growing, but the conditions are not quite there," said Heather Berkman at Eurasia Group consultancy. PROTESTS ESCALATE, SITUATION DETERIORATES If Micheletti lifts the decree, which restricts public gatherings, Zelaya supporters could rebuild protests around the embassy. Zelaya may seek to keep his case in the world spotlight from his embassy refuge. (For a map of the events at the Brazilian embassy, click on http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/RNGS/SEP/HOND2.jpg) Still, Zelaya has been less vocal recently in his public calls for protests and may now see a less antagonistic position as more beneficial before the OAS mission arrives. The decree, in place since Sunday, and a heavy police presence, have restricted protests to feeble street demonstrations rather than angry marches. But if the decree remains, anger over it could well over and spark clashes. ZELAYA IS FORCED OUT, BACKS DOWN OR LEAVES FOR ASYLUM Most unlikely is a move by the de facto government that forces Zelaya out of the embassy. Micheletti officials had talked about removing Brazil's diplomatic credentials. That raised speculation police would try to enter the compound. But Micheletti says he has no intention of storming the embassy to capture Zelaya. Zelaya may opt to seek political asylum to leave the country again if the situation drags on. But that would be accepting defeat and the cowboy hat-wearing leftist is unlikely to give in because of the support he has on the ground and the international isolation of the de facto government. (Editing by Mohammad Zargham)
A soldier patrols outside the Brazilian embassy in Tegucigalpa, October 1, 2009.The crackdown on ousted Honduras President Manuel Zelaya's backers came after de facto leader Roberto Micheletti imposed a decree suspending ...
