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Q+A-US troop buildup in Afghanistan
02 Apr 2009 22:32:01 GMT
Source: Reuters
By Andrew Gray

WASHINGTON, April 2 (Reuters) - The United States plans to send tens of thousands of troops into Afghanistan in the coming months -- and 10,000 more may follow in 2010 -- in an effort to roll back gains by the Taliban and other insurgent groups. [ID:nN01510080]

Here are some key questions about the buildup of U.S. forces in Afghanistan:

HOW MANY TROOPS WILL THE UNITED STATES AND NATO HAVE IN AFGHANISTAN?

The United States expects to go from about 38,000 troops in Afghanistan to 68,000 by this autumn, U.S. Army General David Petraeus, head of U.S. Central Command, said on Thursday.

U.S. Army General David McKiernan, the top U.S. and NATO commander in Afghanistan, has asked for about 10,000 troops on top of that for 2010, according to U.S. officials.

Other nations, mainly NATO members, have another 32,000 troops trying to stabilize Afghanistan. The United States has asked them to increase contributions, particularly to help secure presidential elections in August.

Some nations may announce additional deployments at NATO's 60th anniversary summit on Friday and Saturday.

HOW MUCH OF AN INCREASE DOES THE U.S. BUILDUP REPRESENT?

The current figure of 38,000 U.S. troops in Afghanistan already represents an increase of more than 50 percent of the level two years ago of 24,300 troops.

If the United States has about 78,000 troops in Afghanistan in 2010, that would represent a quadrupling of the force in the space of about four years.

The size of NATO's International Security Assistance Force, minus its U.S. contingent, has grown from about 19,000 in January 2007 to 32,000.

WHAT WILL THE EXTRA U.S. TROOPS DO?

The extra forces earmarked for Afghanistan are a mix of combat troops, special operations forces, trainers for Afghan security personnel and "enablers" -- everything from engineers to medics to military police who support the mission.

Most of the extra forces are expected to deploy to southern Afghanistan, where the insurgency is strongest.

Commanders say the troops will not only fight insurgents but also hold onto areas once they have been cleared, to protect the population and help Afghan authorities provide essential services.

Commanders believe this will help persuade ordinary Afghans to side with the government and oppose the insurgents.

WILL THE INCREASES BE ENOUGH TO STABILIZE AFGHANISTAN?

No U.S. official is prepared to give that guarantee now.

In fact, Petraeus acknowledged on Wednesday that even the planned increases to U.S. and Afghan forces would leave them well short of the ratio of troops to population recommended in the U.S. Army and Marine Corps counterinsurgency manual.

The manual, a key U.S. military text developed under Petraeus and published in 2006, recommends a ratio of between 20 and 25 counterinsurgent troops per 1,000 residents to maintain control.

At a hearing in the U.S. Senate, Petraeus did not disagree with Senator Mark Begich who said even the planned increases would result in a ratio of about 9 counterinsurgents per 1,000 residents.

Petraeus said, however, that it was debatable whether there was an insurgency all across Afghanistan. Michele Flournoy, the Pentagon's policy chief, said troops would be concentrated in areas where the insurgency is strongest.

Establishing the right number of troops to fit the recommended ratios was hard in any case, Petraeus said, because no one was sure how many people live in Afghanistan.

"One area where, believe it or not, we actually have to get some more work by the intelligence community is literally: how large is Afghanistan?" he said.

"There is a dispute right now as to whether it is 30 million or perhaps even as low as 23 million to 25 million."


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