ANALYSIS-New UN sanctions unlikely if N.Korea tests rocket
02 Apr 2009 21:05:09 GMT Source: Reuters
(For full coverage of the North Korean crisis, click [nSP469853]) * China, Russia likely to stymie new North Korea sanctions * Washington balances condemnation with nuclear talks * Pyongyang argues it has every right to satellite launch By Louis Charbonneau and Arshad Mohammed UNITED NATIONS/WASHINGTON, April 2 (Reuters) - China and Russia are all but certain to stymie a U.S. push for new U.N. sanctions on North Korea if it fires off a rocket, leaving tighter enforcement of existing penalties a likelier outcome. Washington is walking a tightrope in its desire to condemn a long-range missile launch while not alienating Pyongyang to the point it carries out a threat to abandon multilateral talks on ending its nuclear programs, diplomats and analysts said. Pyongyang, which conducted a nuclear test in 2006, plans to launch a satellite into space between April 4 and 8, saying it has a right to do so as part of its peaceful space program. The United States argues a launch would violate U.N. Security Council resolution 1718, which was passed after North Korea's nuclear test and demands that it "suspend all activities related to its ballistic missile program." U.S., Japanese and South Korean officials believe the launch is a disguised test of North Korea's long-range Taepodong-2 missile, which is designed to carry a warhead as far as Alaska but has never successfully flown. While the possibility of a nuclear-armed North Korea with long-range missiles disturbs Japan and South Korea, proponents of a tough resolution with additional sanctions, analysts and diplomats said Beijing was loathe to squeeze Pyongyang. "China has been very reluctant to put further pressure on North Korea that would in their view make the situation worse, increase the tension," said Mark Fitzpatrick, nonproliferation expert at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies and a former U.S. arms control official. "I think China would probably prevent any meaningful U.N. Security Council resolution. They might allow an anodyne one to go through that would express condemnation," he added. Western diplomats on the Security Council say the Japanese and Americans likely will have to choose between a strong but nonbinding condemnation by the council or a weak resolution that falls far short of what Washington and Tokyo would like. SLAP ON THE WRIST? "There's no way, other than a figurative slap on the wrist, that the Russians and Chinese are going to want to do very much," said Henry Sokolski, head of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, a Washington-based think tank. "It's pretty clear they're (the council) not going to do much of anything." Japan's Kyodo news agency reported on Thursday that Japan and the United States planned to shelve a proposal for new Security Council sanctions and to seek a resolution that would strengthen existing sanctions against Pyongyang. A U.S. official said the United States was unlikely to give up on new sanctions even before North Korea has gone ahead with a launch. Diplomats at the United Nations said it was widely acknowledged that existing U.N. penalties were not being enforced and that tightening up on these was the most likely starting point for sanctioning North Korea. A U.S. official, who spoke on condition he not be named because talks on the international response are under way, acknowledged the tension between the U.S. desire to censure North Korea and its hope Pyongyang will resume nuclear talks. "We think it's important to send a strong, clear signal to the North Koreans, when and if they launch a missile, that they are outside the bounds of 1718 and that a condemnatory note is sounded by the international community," the official said. "It's also important to keep the door open to an eventual return, in the near to medium term, to a positive diplomatic track with the North Koreans," the official added. The six-party talks among the two Koreas, China, Japan, Russia and the United States have been stalled for months over how to verify that Pyongyang is abandoning its nuclear programs as it committed to doing in a 2005 agreement. "Getting a resolution at all will be difficult but not impossible," said Michael Green, a former U.S. National Security Council official who dealt with North Korea during the Bush administration and is now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank in Washington. Green said he thought that there was a 10 to 20 percent chance at best of a resolution with additional sanctions and a 50-50 chance of one without new penalties, saying that the logical first step would be to tighten existing sanctions. If a resolution is impossible to pass, the United States might have to settle for a formal statement by the council that would condemn North Korea but would not be legally binding. (Additional reporting by Paul Eckert in Washington; Editing by Will Dunham)
Activist of Rossiya Molodaya (Russia Young) wear carnival masks during a demonstration in front of the U.S. Embassy in Moscow, April 2, 2009. Activists gathered to mark the meeting of the ...
