ANALYSIS-Ecuador's Correa boosts standing in Colombia crisis
06 Mar 2008 21:30:26 GMT Source: Reuters
By Alonso Soto QUITO, March 6 (Reuters) - Ecuadorean President Rafael Correa has boosted his standing at home and abroad with his firm response to a Colombian military raid in his country, consolidating the leftist's chances for re-election this year. In his first major international crisis, Correa sent troops to the border, cut diplomatic ties with Bogota and quickly toured Latin America, winning support from regional powers, such as Brazil and Mexico, against U.S.-backed Colombia. On Saturday, Colombia launched an air strike just over the border in Ecuador and ferried in troops in a raid to kill a top rebel. While his outspoken ally Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez immediately joined the dispute by sending tanks to Venezuela's border with Colombia and warning of war, Correa displayed pragmatism by urging an apology from Colombia as a way out of the crisis. Correa, 44, in office little more than a year, has won praise from Ecuadoreans before early elections that must be held later this year if, as widely expected, a new constitution is approved in a referendum in the second half of 2008. "Ecuadoreans will unite to support Correa's firm leadership against a foreign threat ... this will put a rubber stamp on his re-election," said Paulina Recalde, a pollster with Perfiles de Opinion (Opinion Profile) in Quito. "He has also been successful at showing Ecuador as a little but tough country, and won backing outside the leftist axis of (his top allies) Venezuela and Bolivia." Popular for pledging to fight political parties widely seen as corrupt and for providing cheap loans to peasant farmers, Correa was already a clear favorite, especially after his allies swept National Assembly elections in September. Editorial writers, who have generally been at odds with his tough-talking style, back Correa in the Colombia crisis, while the opposition has remained largely silent. More than 80 percent of Ecuadoreans back Correa's reaction against Colombia, a Cedatos-Gallup poll showed this week. CORREA ON STAGE Correa, who catapulted from college professor to the presidency of of the Andean country of 13 million people, found himself thrust into the international spotlight by the crisis. Standing beside influential regional figures such as Chavez and Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva at a series of news conferences, Correa has appeared confident on the big stage. "We will never be satisfied until they sanction those who wanted to violate the sovereignty of our fatherland," Correa said alongside Chavez in Caracas late on Wednesday. Chavez typically steals the show at joint news conferences, with his jokes, anecdotes and long answers. But Correa grabbed some of the attention, interrupting Chavez several times to reinforce their criticism of Colombia and drawing laughter in ridiculing accusations of his support for Colombian rebels. Still, political analysts pointed out the crisis had not ended and his popularity could be hurt if Colombia's accusations he has ties to the rebels gain traction in Ecuador. Colombian President Alvaro Uribe, who has received billions of dollars in U.S. aid to fight leftist rebels, has accused Correa and Chavez of helping Colombian guerrillas who finance their four-decade conflict with proceeds from the cocaine trade. Correa has called Uribe a "bald-faced liar" trying to divert attention from Colombia's military incursion and said Bogota's strike wrecked talks to release a dozen hostages held by rebels in jungle camps. "He has undoubtedly been successful," said Andres Mejia, a professor with the Institute of Development Studies in Brighton. "But we have to see how far his microphone diplomacy goes." The diplomatic break with Colombia is unlikely to boil over into a war or disrupt the $2 billion annual trade between the neighboring states, analysts say. "He has little to lose and much to gain from this conflict at home," said Simon Pachano, an analyst with Ecuador's branch of the Latin American Faculty of Social Sciences. "But he still needs to manage some charges from Colombia that could tarnish his government's image." (Additional reporting by Saul Hudson; Editing by Saul Hudson and Peter Cooney)
Women walk past chalk outlines drawn on the ground in front of the Colombian embassy in Mexico City March 6, 2008, during a protest against violence in Colombia. REUTERS/Daniel Aguilar (MEXICO) ...
