By Arshad Mohammed WASHINGTON, Sept 7 (Reuters) - The odds of the U.S. Congress passing a U.S.-India civil nuclear deal this year are long, U.S. congressional aides and analysts said on Sunday, but the deal is all but certain to win approval eventually. The Bush administration took a major step toward enacting the agreement on Saturday, when the 45-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group blessed a U.S. proposal to lift a global ban on nuclear trade with India. Congressional blessing is the last hurdle to the deal, which the Bush administration believes will forge a strategic partnership with the world's largest democracy, help India meet rising energy demand and open a nuclear market worth billions. But the agreement has raised international misgivings because India has shunned the Nonproliferation Treaty meant to stop the spread and production of nuclear weapons and as well as a companion international agreement banning nuclear tests. Critics believe the deal undermines efforts to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and sets a precedent allowing other nations to seek to buy such technology without submitting to the full range of global nonproliferation safeguards. The pact passed another key hurdle on Aug. 1 when the International Atomic Energy Commission, the U.N. nuclear watchdog, approved an inspections plan for some -- but not all -- of India nuclear facilities. Asked if clearing the final hurdle, U.S. congressional approval, this year would be like hitting three consecutive holes-in-one in golf, a senior U.S. official replied with a laugh: "No. You underestimate the difficulty." The official, who spoke on condition that he not be named, said the Bush administration would reach out to congressional leaders to see how it might be possible to complete the deal before U.S. President George W. Bush leaves office on Jan. 20. Before it even can send the deal to Congress for final approval, the administration must certify to lawmakers that India has met certain conditions. Among these, the official said India has yet to make "substantial progress" toward concluding an agreement with the IAEA on an "additional protocol" of safeguards to verify it is using civilian nuclear facilities only for peaceful purposes. He said it has also has not yet formally adhered to the guidelines of the Nuclear Suppliers Group and the Missile Technology Control Regime, a voluntary pact that aims to limit the spread of ballistic missile technology. PROFITS OVER NONPROLIFERATION? Once the agreement has been sent to Congress, under current law it must remain for 30 days before it can be voted on. Given that Congress is expected to adjourn by the end of September so lawmakers can campaign for the Nov. 4 U.S. election, there is not enough time to meet the 30-day requirement without a "lame duck" session after the election. Congressional aides said there were ways to circumvent the 30-day requirement but all required the solid support of the Democratic leadership of both houses of Congress. It is possible the Democrats will be reluctant to go to great lengths to enact the deal this year and thereby handing the Republican president a victory on his way out the door. Rep. Howard Berman, the California Democrat who chairs the House Foreign Affairs Committee, on Sunday said he wanted more information from the administration before he would consider an expedited procedure. "The burden of proof is on the Bush Administration so that Congress can be assured that what we're being asked to approve conforms with U.S. law," Berman said in the written statement. Michael Krepon, a South Asia expert at the Henry L. Stimson Center think tank who opposes the agreement, said he thought it was all but certain that Congress would eventually approve it. The key reason, he and congressional aides said, was that with the NSG's action on Saturday all of its members are free to sell nuclear technology to India. If Congress does not approve the deal, only U.S. companies would be left out. "France and Russia now have a green light to put profits over concerns about nonproliferation, and they will do so whether or not the Congress acts," he said. "Under those circumstances, with the damage (to the nonproliferation regime) done, blockage doesn't have a high political percentage." (Editing by Cynthia Osterman)
A flood-affected boy eats inside a tent in a flood relief camp in Bathna village of Araria district in the eastern Indian state of Bihar, September 7, 2008. Authorities battling a ...
