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ANALYSIS-US puts aside doubts over Iraq's Maliki
07 Sep 2007 15:51:42 GMT
Source: Reuters
By Sue Pleming

WASHINGTON, Sept 7 (Reuters) - After publicly questioning its support for Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, the Bush administration appears to have concluded that, however ineffectual he has been, now is not the time to replace him.

Iraq analysts and U.S. experts said this position was adopted despite calls last month from Democrats who control Congress that Maliki should go and expressions of disappointment in his performance by President George W. Bush and other officials.

Maliki's fragile coalition is in trouble. More than a dozen ministers from his cabinet have quit and claims abound that the Shi'ite prime minister focuses only on the interests of the Shi'ite majority, disregarding the Sunni minority.

His role came under fire in August, as Washington prepared for next week's critical assessment of the current Bush administration's Iraq policy by the commander of U.S. forces in Iraq, Gen. David Petraeus and U.S. ambassador Ryan Crocker.

Crocker said openly last month that U.S. support for Maliki was not "a blank check" and he and Bush both used the word "frustration" in assessing the Iraqi government.

"It got pretty intense," a U.S. official said, adding that the internal debate now appeared over. "He (Maliki) is a symptom of the broader lack of reconciliation rather than a cause," said the official, who asked not to be named because his comments were sensitive.

Maliki has made clear he has no intention of quitting and nor does he expect to be forced out.

Several U.S. officials said if there were an obvious alternative to Maliki then the option of replacing him might be worth exploring but that was not the case. Bush now says the choice of prime minister is a matter for the Iraqi people.

Iraq experts say the administration had little choice but to continue backing Maliki.

"The administration may be realizing what a lot of other people have known for a while. The Iraqi government is so dysfunctional, it is so completely under the domination of Shia elements supplemented by Kurds and so anti-Sunni Arabs that it doesn't really matter who is prime minister," said Wayne White, a former deputy director of the State Department's Middle East intelligence office.

"That is why the recent cries for Maliki's ouster have become a little bit more muted but they could rise again tomorrow," added White, now with the Middle East Institute.

"YOU ARE MY FRIEND"

While stressing he must do more to reconcile the warring factions, Bush was at pains to show support for Maliki during a visit to Iraq's western Anbar province this week.

"They are too closely tied up with him to dump him. The president is pretty loyal to people, despite which there is no one to replace him. I think we are stuck with him," said former U.S. ambassador to Israel and Egypt, Ned Walker.

Bush told reporters after meeting Maliki he had taken the Iraqi leader aside and reassured him: "'You're my friend and ... you've made progress in your recent meetings and now's the time to get these laws passed. You've got hard work to do.' and you know what? He understands that."

International affairs professor at Columbia University, Gary Sick, said "switching horses" at such a critical time in Iraq would mean more chaos.

"Our ability to select the right person is probably not very good. Even though people are not very happy with Maliki, they are living with him," said Sick.

Moreover, if U.S. impatience with Maliki became more obvious, it would be harder for Bush to win the financial and other support he needs from Congress for Iraq, said Jon Alterman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think-tank.

Alterman said the Bush administration was purposefully papering over its differences with Maliki.

"It seems to me that the administration's embrace of Maliki is tactical rather than strategic because of a very short term effort to get money out of Congress without a lot of strings," said Alterman.

"The problem is not Maliki necessarily, the problem is that the job may be impossible for anyone to do," added Alterman. (Reporting by Sue Pleming; editing by David Storey; email:sue.pleming@Reuters.com; tel: 202 898-8393))


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Last updated:Fri Sep 7 15:51:47 2007