SCENARIOS-How will Obama lay out his packed agenda at UN?
20 Sep 2009 12:15:18 GMT Source: Reuters
By Matt Spetalnick WASHINGTON, Sept 20 (Reuters) - U.S. President Barack Obama delivers his first speech to the United Nations General Assembly on Wednesday, culminating his biggest week on the world stage since taking office in January. Obama has been widely credited with improving the tone of U.S. foreign policy after eight years under George W. Bush, but the early stages of his administration have yielded few concrete accomplishments on major global challenges. As an overriding theme, he will stress his multilateral approach, in marked contrast to Bush's more go-it-alone style. But Obama's prospects for further gains with foreign leaders are clouded by signs of weakness at home, where his approval ratings have dropped from once-lofty levels amid a fierce debate over healthcare reform. Following are key issues Obama is likely to raise and his chances for getting movement: IRAN: With Iran's much-anticipated talks with the United States and other world powers set for Oct. 1, Tehran's disputed nuclear program will be at the top of Obama's U.N. agenda. A balancing act can be expected in Obama's speech as he tries to shore up international pressure on Iran while avoiding strident language that might further entrench its defiance. He is not likely to call for new sanctions from the podium, though he may repeat a threat of consequences if Iran continues to resist Western demands to curb its nuclear program. Washington believes it is seeking to develop atomic weapons, but Tehran says its program is for generating electricity. In one-on-one talks with world leaders, Obama could find Russian President Dmitry Medvedev more open to U.S. concerns over Iran now that he has dropped a Bush-era missile defense plan that Moscow had bitterly opposed. Obama, who made the promise of engaging U.S. foes a major thrust of his election campaign, has agreed to the talks with Iran despite its stated refusal to negotiate over its nuclear activities. That would limit any chance of a breakthrough. AFGHANISTAN: Obama will seek to shore up support from world leaders for the war in Afghanistan, where U.S. combat deaths have risen as a resurgent Taliban has confounded efforts to stabilize the country. The Obama administration is locked in an internal debate over whether to send more troops despite the American public's flagging support for the war and resistance from his fellow Democrats. The stakes are high. Obama has shifted the military focus from Iraq to Afghanistan, which he accused Bush of neglecting. Obama can be expected to reassert the U.S. commitment to Afghanistan and to aiding neighboring Pakistan in its fight against Islamic militancy. But Obama's words will probably not be enough to move NATO partners, who are facing opposition at home to a war that has dragged on for eight years. There are also serious concerns about fraud in Afghanistan's Aug. 20 presidential election. ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN CONFLICT: The White House hopes Obama's meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas the day before the U.S. leader's U.N. address will help lay the groundwork for eventual resumption of long-stalled peace negotiations, a top priority. But with both sides entrenched in their positions, the three-way talks in New York are likely to be more of a photo opportunity than the breakthrough meeting Obama's aides had envisioned. U.S. envoy George Mitchell finished a week of diplomacy without a deal on freezing Jewish settlement building in the occupied West Bank. No big announcements are expected, but if Obama can wring out even modest good-faith gestures he may have something positive to offer the General Assembly. Whatever the outcome, he likely will press all parties to do more, including moderate Arab states that have rebuffed his appeals for conciliatory steps toward Israel. NORTH KOREA: Like his outreach to Iran, Obama's effort to engage North Korea has borne little fruit, with Pyongyang still defiant in its development of nuclear weapons capability. North Korea can be expected to come up in the context of Obama's push for tougher global safeguards against nuclear proliferation. The standoff will also figure in a Security Council session on nuclear disarmament he chairs on Thursday. Obama will likely press Pyongyang to return to suspended six-party talks on dismantling its nuclear program. North Korea's release of two U.S. journalists to former President Bill Clinton could still signal a diplomatic opening, but it is unclear whether either side will grasp the opportunity. IRAQ: Obama will give less attention to Iraq in his speech than did Bush, who often used U.N. appearances to justify the 2003 U.S.-led invasion and his war policy. For Obama, it will be a chance to reassure world leaders, many of whom opposed the invasion, that he is making good on his promise to wind down the war. U.S. forces have already pulled back from cities and towns, and Obama says the military is on track to withdraw the last of its troops by 2012. Despite that, a recent surge in bomb attacks has raised questions about the capabilities of Iraqi security forces. CLIMATE: Obama won accolades internationally for vowing from the outset to make the fight against climate change a higher priority than his predecessor. But his effort has become bogged down at home, where the struggle over healthcare reform threatens to crowd other issues off the legislative agenda, and internationally, where rich nations and developing countries remain at odds. He will take the podium the day after addressing a one-day U.N. summit on climate change where the prospects for any significant advance remains doubtful. Susan Rice, the U.S. ambassador to the world body, said Obama would "underscore that ... everybody has to step up." The Obama administration would like to have a climate change law in place before international talks in Copenhagen in December. But oil, agriculture and manufacturing firms have lined up in opposition, saying the cost would be too high. GLOBAL ECONOMY: As leader of the world's top economy, Obama can ill afford to steer clear of talking about global efforts to curb the worst financial crisis in decades. On the eve of a Group of 20 meeting in Pittsburgh, he will likely cite signs of a global economy on the mend but also sound a call for further international cooperation. With U.S.-style free-wheeling capitalism under fire as a key culprit in the crisis, he can be expected to defend free enterprise while acknowledging greater safeguards are needed. (Editing by Chris Wilson) (Reuters Messaging: matt.spetalnick.reuters.com@reuters.net)
Italy's President Giorgio Napolitano touches one of six coffins of Italian soldiers killed in Afghanistan three days ago, as they arrived at Ciampino airport near Rome September 20, 2009. REUTERS/Enrico Oliveiro/Italian ...
