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FACTBOX-Possible scenarios in Bolivia's crisis
14 Sep 2008 20:22:31 GMT
 Source: Reuters
Sept 14 (Reuters) - Bolivia's simmering political crisis has entered a crucial phase, with martial law imposed in one region and at least 30 people killed in clashes between supporters of leftist President Evo Morales and rightist opposition groups that oppose his plans for socialist reforms.

Here are possible scenarios in the landlocked Andean country, an important supplier of natural gas to neighboring Brazil and Argentina:

CONCESSIONS

A summit of South American leaders on Monday in Chile could encourage Morales and his rivals to resolve the conflict peacefully as neighboring countries express strong support for the president and the rule of law.

Under this scenario, Morales and the opposition may agree on a roadmap for reconciliation, with the president bowing to some of his foes' demands for more autonomy and energy revenues. The concessions may appease his rivals, some of whom want Morales to resign.

POSITIONS HARDEN

The wide ideological divide between Morales and his rivals could keep them from making a deal. In this scenario, supporters of the opposition governors in four of the country's nine regions could step up protests and Morales' backers could march to eastern regions, triggering more clashes.

This case implies a strong risk that anti-government protesters attack natural gas facilities again, disrupting exports of natural gas to Brazil and Argentina.

In an extreme case, support for Morales among the armed forces could weaken, raising chances that the president could be toppled. Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, a key Morales ally, has threatened to back armed resistance movements if the Bolivian leader were forced out.

A TENUOUS DEAL

Both sides could strike a deal but lose control of their supporters, who could continue blocking roads, occupying buildings and/or disrupting natural gas flows.

Or a deal could last a few weeks or months before falling apart. (Reporting by Eduardo Garcia; Editing by Terry Wade and John O'Callaghan)


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