Nov 30 (Reuters) - The centerpiece of President Barack Obama's revised war strategy in Afghanistan is expected to be the deployment of about 30,000 more U.S. troops to secure population centers, beat back the Taliban and train Afghan security forces to gradually assume control. Washington hopes the buildup, expected to be phased in during the next 12 to 18 months, will create conditions to allow the U.S. troop presence to eventually be scaled back. General Stanley McChrystal, the top U.S. and NATO commander in Afghanistan, has told lawmakers that a troop drawdown could begin by 2013, while the White House said it expected U.S. forces out of the country by 2017-2018. STEPPING UP COUNTERINSURGENCY, TRAINING Obama is expected to continue the existing counterinsurgency strategy with a greater focus on protecting major Afghan population centers along with agricultural areas and transportation routes. That could be combined with a stepped-up counterterrorism campaign, advocated by Vice President Joe Biden, using unmanned aerial drones and special operations forces to combat Taliban and al Qaeda fighters along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border and in Afghanistan's more sparsely populated areas. A top priority for Obama will be accelerating the training of Afghan security forces to take over responsibility from U.S. and NATO troops. One leading proposal would set the goal of having about 400,000 Afghan army troops and national police officers, more than twice the forces' current size, by 2012, a year earlier than currently planned. Several key administration officials doubt that accelerated timetable can be fulfilled. EXIT STRATEGY TAKES SHAPE U.S. officials said a transition to greater Afghan control could begin quickly in parts of Afghanistan that are more stable. Britain has called for the transfer of at least five Afghan provinces to "lead Afghan control" by the end of 2010 but it is unclear what that would entail. Afghan President Hamid Karzai has said his forces should be ready to take over from Western troops within five years, a timeframe that some U.S. officials see as overly optimistic. McChrystal told a visiting congressional delegation last week that a U.S. troop drawdown could begin by 2013 but the Pentagon has cautioned against setting specific dates for a withdrawal, saying any handover depends on conditions on the ground. Defense Secretary Robert Gates sees the U.S. withdrawal plan in Iraq as a possible model, whereby troops pull back and eventually out of city centers as Afghan forces assume the leading role. TROOP INCREASE The leading buildup option, an increase of 30,000 to 35,000 U.S. troops and trainers, has the backing of several of Obama's top national security and military advisers, including Gates. Pentagon officials hope NATO member-states eventually will supplement the buildup with up to 10,000 of their own troops and trainers, pushing the overall number close to the 40,000 recommended by McChrystal to counter a resurgent Taliban. Britain has said it expects countries to pledge another 5,000 troops on top of those sent by the United States. Currently, there are roughly 68,000 U.S. troops and 42,000 allied forces in Afghanistan. Leading the buildup, officials said, likely will be an 8,000-plus Marine Expeditionary Brigade, followed by at least three Army brigades, typically made up of about 4,000 soldiers each. Commanders want the Marines concentrated in Taliban strongholds in southern Afghanistan, including Kandahar and Helmond, the group's opium-producing heartland. U.S. reinforcements also are expected to be sent to eastern Afghanistan near the border with Pakistan. In addition to a 30,000-plus troop buildup, Obama has been considering a 20,000-plus deployment that may be more politically palatable for his Democratic allies in Congress. That number would allow McChrystal to accelerate the training of the Afghan army and police but would provide him with few additional resources for a broader counterinsurgency. The smallest increase on the table would send an additional 10,000 to 15,000 troops to focus on training Afghan forces. STAGED DEPLOYMENT The Pentagon envisages carrying out the anticipated troop buildup in Afghanistan gradually. Military officials said Afghanistan's crumbling infrastructure would make it difficult to field and equip more than a single brigade every quarter, giving Obama the option of changing course before all the new troops are in place. The first large-scale brigade under the expected buildup, accompanied by support units, could arrive before spring, when fighting typically picks up. Due to logistical hurdles, the buildup may not be complete until mid-2011. ANTI-CORRUPTION 'COMPACT' WITH AFGHAN GOVERNMENT A key part of Obama's strategy will be benchmarks for Karzai's government to crack down on corruption and improve governance. U.S. officials say getting Karzai to do so is critical to a successful counterinsurgency that hinges on Afghans supporting their government instead of the Taliban. Gates sees no quick fix to those problems and top officials said the United States could withhold aid contracts to pressure Karzai's government to act. DIVIDE AND CONQUER Administration officials say Obama wants greater outreach to groups that fight alongside the Taliban but could be persuaded to lay down their weapons in exchange for a greater role in local governance and Western-funded development. As part of the revised strategy, the United States wants to see a crackdown on Taliban insurgent leaders based in Pakistan, including Mullah Omar and an allied network headed by veteran commander Jalaluddin Haqqani. Islamabad has been reluctant to act against them, U.S. officials say, citing suspected links between the militants and elements of Pakistani intelligence. PAYING THE BILLS The White House Office of Management and Budget estimates it will cost about $1 million a year for each additional soldier sent to Afghanistan. That means a 30,000- to 40,000- troop increase would add about $30 billion to $40 billion a year to the war's already soaring cost. War spending in Afghanistan has more than doubled in the past year, reaching $6.7 billion in June alone. Pentagon officials worry that sticker shock could fuel congressional opposition to Obama's expected buildup. (Reporting by Adam Entous in Washington; Editing by Bill Trott) ((For more on Afghanistan, click on [ID:nAFPAK])) ((adam.entous@thomsonreuters.com; +1 202 898 8300; Reuters Messaging: adam.entous.reuters.com@reuters.net))
Security forces guide blindfolded men to a vehicle after they were showcased to the media at Fort Slope in Bara, a town located in Pakistan's Khyber Agency about 15 km (9 ...
