By Claudia Parsons BAGHDAD, Jan 7 (Reuters) - The Iraqi government expects a "slight tuning" in U.S. policy rather than a major change when President George W. Bush makes a much-heralded announcement this week on plans to turn around the increasingly unpopular war. Bush has already put in motion a reshuffle of commanders and diplomats in Iraq and is preparing to unveil a new strategy next week that officials say may include a proposal to add 20,000 U.S. troops in Baghdad, the epicentre of sectarian violence. Few in Iraq, however, see a troop surge making a substantial difference in the absence of other changes. Ever since his Republicans were defeated at congressional elections in November, Bush has been under domestic pressure to come up with a timetable to withdraw troops while at the same time stop Iraq's descent into all-out civil war. The number of U.S. troops has fluctuated up to around 150,000 since the March 2003 invasion and now stands at 127,000. "We know there is a slight tuning in the policy of the United State in Iraq and it includes sending more troops to enforce security in and around Baghdad," Sami al-Askari, an adviser to Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, told Reuters. "The Iraqi government knows about it because they were told in advance," he added. Bush and Maliki, a Shi'ite Islamist, spoke for nearly two hours on Thursday and Iraqi and U.S. officials say the plans have been coordinated closely over the past weeks. Maliki himself announced on Saturday a major security plan for Baghdad, vowing to crush illegal armed groups "regardless of sect or politics" -- suggesting he may be ready to tackle militias loyal to his fellow Shi'ites, a key U.S. demand. "In principle they (the government) welcome any additional troops if the (Iraqi) commanders on the ground say this is necessary to succeed in the plan," Askari said. "I don't think there is a major change in their policy," he added. "The main thing we want is to see them giving the Iraqi government more authority in controlling the security profile, and accelerating the building and arming of Iraqi troops." SOLUTION IN IRAQI HANDS Reinforcing and training Iraq's 300,000 troops and police has been a central pillar of Washington's hopes of handing over security to Iraqi control, but the task has proved difficult. Police, and to a lesser extent the army, are deeply infiltrated by militias, and lack of equipment and logistical capabilities make it hard for them to operate independently. All sides seem agreed the crisis demands a political solution from Iraqis. "I can't see any significant change (in U.S. policy) that might lead to short term success," said one Western diplomat in Baghdad from a country that is not part of the U.S.-led coalition. "I'm sure that some time this country will be stable, one way or another but it takes time -- maybe 10 or 20 years." Iraqis remember many unfulfilled promises of improved security and are sceptical Bush's plans will make a difference. A major U.S. troop surge in Baghdad in August initially helped reduce violence but just two months later U.S. commanders admitted the results of the operation had been "disheartening". U.S. Lieutenant General Raymond Odierno, in charge of combat forces in Iraq, said on Sunday U.S. commanders had offered several recommendations and some did not involve more troops. "There has to be a surge in more than just the military, there has to be a surge in diplomatic, there has to be a surge in economic issues," Odierno said. He also sought to play down U.S. public expectations of what could be achieved over insurgents, saying an overwhelming "77-7" win -- to use a sports metaphor -- "ain't going to happen". "It's a different concept. There will be no victory parade when we leave here. There never was going to be," he said. A U.S. troop increase may provoke a backlash from radical Shi'ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr whose political movement is a part of Maliki's government. The Mehdi Army militia, which is loyal to Sadr, is blamed by U.S. commanders and many Sunni Arabs for much of the violence. The Sadrists in parliament have been boycotting the government to push demands for a U.S. withdrawal. The killing last month of a senior Sadrist in Najaf and other raids have already sparked an angry backlash in Shi'ite strongholds. "The solution is in the hands of Iraqis, not in the hands of outsiders," said Falah Shanshal, a senior Sadrist. "We've had experience of U.S. forces in Iraq and they've created a crisis." At the other end of the political spectrum, Saleh al-Mutlaq, an outspoken Sunni Arab member of parliament, said more U.S. troops would have no impact unless Bush sought what he called a neutral, transitional government to replace "sectarian" rulers. "It's not going to help, even if he sends hundreds of thousands of his troops to Iraq," Mutlaq said. (Additional reporting by Aseel Kami and Alastair Macdonald)
