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Q+A-Why is North Korea getting so angry?
13 Nov 2008 05:47:42 GMT
Source: Reuters
(For related story, click on [nSEO211167])

By Jonathan Thatcher

SEOUL, Nov 13 (Reuters) - Isolated North Korea announced this week it will shut its border with the South and the international community could not remove samples from a nuclear plant to check whether it is still producing material for weapons.

It said the question of taking samples out of the country impinged on its sovereignty.

There were also reports on Thursday it had begun restricting visitors from China, the nearest it has to a powerful ally, including virtually closing off one of its main border crossings.

Below are some questions about North Korea's latest moves:

* Why is North Korea raising tension with the South?

The North, constantly on the edge of famine, enjoyed almost unlimited aid in the past 10 years from left-leaning governments in Seoul. That has all but stopped since conservative President Lee Myung-bak took office in February, promising that future help would be generous but would only come with progress by the North in dismantling its nuclear weapons programme.

Pyongyang appears especially upset over a recent flood of leaflets denouncing leader Kim Jong-il, thought to have suffered a stroke in August, sent across the border by civic groups which the government in the South has done nothing to stop.

*Why the fuss over nuclear samples?

Over some two decades of negotiations aimed at trying to get Pyongyang to give up its efforts to create an atomic arsenal, the North has repeatedly used the tactic of focusing on one specific issue that has either dragged out the talks or wrung concessions from economic powers. South Korean Foreign Minister Yu Myung-hwan said that was probably what it is doing this time.

The military threat is the only powerful leverage the impoverished and reclusive state has with the outside world. And, in turn, the perceived threat from the outside world helps give North Korea's leadership legitimacy at home. That makes it akin to political suicide for leader Kim Jong-il to relinquish his nuclear ambitions.

*Why now?

* North Korea's latest sabre-rattling comes shortly after the U.S. presidential election and may well be timed to send a message to incoming leader Barack Obama not to overlook the small, communist state as he maps out his foreign policy before taking office in January. It may also be hoping to squeeze something out of the outgoing U.S. administration.

North Korea usually times its shockwaves carefully. The latest came just after Obama held his first meeting as president-elect with outgoing leader George W. Bush.

Pyongyang may also hope that with the prospect of Obama being a more accommodating president than Bush, it will force South Korea to soften its hard-nosed approach to relations.

The moves also come amid widespread speculation that leader Kim Jong-il, treated in the official media as a demi-god, may still be seriously ill.

* What does the North stand to lose?

On the nuclear talks, not much. The longer they drag on, from the North's perspective, the longer it can postpone nuclear disablement. However, it will want to be careful not to further delay desperately needed shipments of oil promised under a disarmament-for-aid deal.

Losses from South Korea could be painful. The food-short North has already lost significant aid from Seoul since Lee became president.

By completely shutting the border, it will give up what is left of a lucrative tourism trade, already reduced after a visiting South Korean housewife was shot dead in July at one tourist spot.

The biggest commercial loss would be the closure of a South Korean-run industrial estate just inside its territory that brings in tens of millions of dollars a year for salaries for North Korean workers -- although most of the money ends up in the hands of the Pyongyang leadership.

* Is there anyone else the North can turn to?

China. It is by far North Korea's biggest commercial partner and has increasingly come to dominate the economy. But that, several analysts say, is worrying Pyongyang's leaders who fear dependence on their giant neighbour is becoming too strong.

There are also sporadic aid shipments of oil from the international community to fuel what is left of its rusting industrial base. Residents and recent visitors to the capital say there appears to be more money around than usual, possibly the result of high international prices earlier in the year for commodities which the North exports. (Editing by Paul Tait)


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Last updated:Thu Nov 13 05:48:51 2008