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China holds key to North Korea problem - Seoul
23 Jun 2009 09:58:49 GMT
Source: Reuters
- For full coverage of North Korea, click [ID:nSP431049]

By Jack Kim and Sean Maguire

SEOUL, June 23 (Reuters) - The only way North Korea will give up nuclear weapons is if China finally abandons decades of support for the isolated state, a senior South Korean official said on Tuesday.

In unusually direct comments, he said there were enough sanctions in place to force Pyongyang back to the negotiating table if China gave them its full backing following a surge in military threats by the North, including last month's nuclear test.

"I think they are agonising what to do," the senior presidential official told Reuters, asking not to be identified in line with government policy on sensitive issues. China, which fought with the North in the 1950-53 Korean War, has long been its main benefactor, seeing the communist neighbour as a buffer to U.S. influence on the divided peninsula.

"We do not want to simply push China into a corner ... our intention is to persuade China to look at the world a little bit differently. For the last 60 years ... their strategy looked at North Korea from the Cold War situation," he said.

"A free, nuclear-free and more open North Korea and possibly a unified Korea in the future can be even more beneficial for China's national interest."

China joined a U.N. Security Council resolution on June 12 widening sanctions to cut off Pyongyang's lucrative arms trade after the North's second nuclear test on May 25, but there have been doubts that it would carry out the punishments.

China's Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang said on Tuesday nations tracking North Korean ships should muster "ample evidence and proper cause" before seeking to check their cargo. [ID:nPEK105843]

"This is a complex and sensitive issue," he told a news conference in Beijing when asked about enforcing the resolution.

"China will strictly observe the relevant Security Council resolution. We believe ship inspections should be enforced according to relevant international and domestic law, and one should have ample evidence and proper cause."

The United States navy has been tracking a North Korean ship that South Korean news reports have said may be headed to Myanmar, possibly carrying missiles or missile parts. [ID:nSP152590]

North Korea, whose annual GDP is about $20 billion, is believed to earn about $1.5 billion annually from missile sales.

"CRITICAL" JUNCTURE

Its latest round of sabre-rattling is seen as trying to consolidate the iron grip of leader Kim Jong-il, whose health is thought to be in decline, so he can ensure his youngest son, Jong-un, succeeds as the third generation of his family to have ruled the hermit state since it was founded.

The presidential Blue House official said that process was part of a campaign by the impoverished North to become what it says will be "a great prosperous and powerful nation" by 2012.

"We have a critical momentum of three or four years from now," he said. "They want to finish their 'military first' policy by 2012. If we cannot prevent and block this (by then) ... it will be too late for us to reverse the situation."

Analysts say that Kim has held onto power for 15 years by giving priority to his generals who head one of the world's largest standing armies.

Pyongyang responded to fresh U.N. sanctions by threatening to start a uranium enrichment programme, which experts said could give it a second route to an atomic bomb, restart its Yongbyon nuclear plant and weaponise all its plutonium, believed to be enough for at least six bombs.

Experts believe the North is years away from being able to miniaturise a nuclear weapon to mount on a warhead and needs several more nuclear tests to develop one.

Foreign ministers of South Korea, the United States, Japan, Russia and China plan to meet at a regional security forum in late July to devise a way to coax the North back to deadlocked disarmament talks, the official said.

But this time, regional powers will not repeat past mistakes of compensating the North for partially suspending its nuclear programme, only to see it restarted when talks hit a snag, and will look for ways to only reward permanent atomic disarmament.

"We bought Yongbyon twice and North Korea went back to the past," the official said. "With our new package, we do not any more, and cannot any more, buy any partial element of North Korea's nuclear programme again." (Additional reporting by Jonathan Thatcher; Editing by Jeremy Laurence)


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