KUALA LUMPUR, Sept 29 (Reuters) - Crowds taunted soldiers and police sealed off the centre of the capital behind barbed-wire barricades on Friday in anticipation of fresh protests against 45 years of military rule in Myanmar and deepening hardship. The junta's violent response to peaceful demonstrations, despite worldwide calls for restraint, has drawn a chorus of diplomatic protests. Following are possible scenarios for what may happen next in Myanmar. 1988 REVISITED: BRUTAL CRACKDOWN. The junta relentlessly cracks down on the protesters, with more casualties and mass arrests. The army keeps monks penned up in monasteries. This puts a quick end to the uprising. The junta, in a sop to international opinion, pledges to get back on track with its "roadmap to democracy". This is somewhat akin to what happened in the 1988 uprising. The army shot and killed an estimated 3,000 demonstrators throughout the country beginning on Aug. 8, 1988 at the beginning of the "Four Eights" revolt -- and then withdrew from the capital, then called Rangoon, when that action failed to quell the demonstrations. For the next month, protesters controlled the streets, and leaders such as Aung San Suu Kyi emerged. But on Sept. 18 General Saw Maung seized power and brutally crushed the uprising. "Unlike 1988, what we have here is leaderless movement," said author Bertil Lintner, a Myanmar expert based in the northern Thai city of Chiang Mai. "Monks can only mobilise to a certain degree, but they are not political leaders. "The difference is there's more international attention than in 1988. But the movement is not as strong. The anger is as deep, but in 1988, you had millions across the country rising up with political leadership. This time no." "PEOPLE POWER" TOPPLES THE GENERALS Protests gather critical mass in the capital Yangon and more crucially in the countryside. Millions of people are mobilised. Faced with the prospect of having to shoot thousands of people, the junta implodes and Myanmar witnesses a victory for people power along the lines of the Philippine script in 1986. Then, millions demonstrated in Manila until dictator Ferdinand Marcos was forced into exile. This was possible with crucial support from the Catholic Church and moderate elements of the army. "Is the military going to stand firm? Are there any fissures in the military to prevent them from applying deadly force? It will come apart pretty quickly when soldiers refuse to shoot," said Tom Green, executive director of Manila-based risk consultancy, Pacific Strategies and Assessment. "As long as the bad guys are willing to shoot, it tends not to go any place. But if the bad guy hesitates, and you have a million people in the streets, no security organisation can stand up to it ... and you reach a people power thing." THE SOFT COUP Senior army commanders make junta supremo, Than Shwe, 74, a sacrificial lamb to placate public and international opinion. A leaked video of his daughter's lavish wedding last year sparked outrage and has made him deeply unpopular. Senior generals stage a coup and force him into retirement. The new military leadership then opens dialogue with the democratic opposition and accelerates its "roadmap to democracy". This follows the Indonesian script. In 1998, autocratic president Suharto, then 76, was forced to resign under pressure from his military commander and hand power to the civilian vice president, who then introduced democratic reforms. As in Myanmar today, Indonesia was in dire economic straits during Asia's financial crisis, which hit the middle class hard. "I'd be very surprised," Lintner said. "Indonesia had a civil society in 1998. In Burma, that doesn't exist. I've never heard of any moderate elements in the Burma army. Indonesia had educated army officers. People travelled abroad and were exposed to the outside world. You don't have that in Burma." MORE OF THE SAME Low-level protests continue, but the military, under pressure from China, ASEAN and others, practises restraint. The junta meets the U.N. envoy, endures criticism, and tries to ride out the storm, with few concessions to the democratic opposition. Analysts say it is not in the DNA of the generals to let the protests go on indefinitely and they have proved to be virtually immune to foreign pressure. "They're not going to give in to anything," Lintner said. "China is not going to pressure them to do anything. They want stability, but not change. They have a close relationship with the present regime. Have a democratic government come to power that changes every four years? They don't want that."
