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ANALYSTS' VIEW 3-Repercussions on Asia of Obama's win
05 Nov 2008 05:08:20 GMT
 Source: Reuters
BEIJING, Nov 5 (Reuters) - Democrat Barack Obama's victory in the U.S. presidential election is likely to have major repercussions on relations with Asia. Here are some analysts' views on how they expect an Obama administration to affect ties.

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JAPAN

Brad Glosserman, executive director of CSIS Pacific Forum, a regional security think tank in Hawaii:

"I think in many ways this represents an extraordinary opportunity for U.S.-Japan relations. The reason being that Obama's approach to security and international relations places great emphasis on a multilateral approach. I suggest that the relationship with Japan has depended too much on the military pillar of the alliance....It's a great chance for Japan to be a real engaged partner, but it requires Japan to articulate a vision and strategy that corresponds to the new thinking about the region.

But he added: "The Japanese are worried ... They are concerned that the don't have the relationships with the Democrats that they have had with the Republicans."

Koichi NAKANO, political science professor, Sophia University:

"Japanese conservative leaders have had an easier time dealing with Republicans than Democrats in the past so I'm sure they are worried. I don't know how much network building has been going on for the past year ... It's going to be a cultural adjustment."

He added: "I don't think the alliance will change much, at least immediately. The biggest issue facing both countries and the world is economic in nature and in dealing with the financial crisis. Ties with Japan will be valuable and Obama has many good people to draw on ... The Democrats in the past have been more into revitalising ties with China and this will be in the back of the minds of Japanese policy-makers."

CHINA

Tao Xie, U.S.-China relations expert at Beijing Foreign Studies University:

"For U.S.-China relations, I don't think it portends such significant change. If there would be any change at all, it would have to depend on at least a couple of more conditions. One, a big victory for the Democrats in the House and the Senate. And second, if there were to be exogenous events beyond people's expectations or control."

"Even if there are changes, there will be far fewer significant changes than symbolic changes. The Democrats in the House may be more active in sponsoring protectionist legislation, for example, Senator Charles Schumer of New York, trying to put more pressure on China. But that's more bark than bite."

Jia Qingguo, expert on relations with the U.S. at Peking University:

"I don't think an Obama administration will make big changes in policy towards China. But there will be a shift in emphasis to more pressure on trade and currency issues, as well as human rights and the environment and climate change. I expect there'll be less friction over China as a traditional security threat.

"I don't think we'll see the usual lift in tensions (at the start of the administration). The international economic situation won't allow for that. Because the Democrats have been out of power for so long, there will be some friction, simply because they lack the familiarity with policy and mutual understandings that developed under eight years of Bush."

Shen Dingli, international security analyst at Fudan University in Shanghai:

"He is our man, I think. China wants to solve problems through international cooperation. The new president will create much more space for international cooperation than under Bush.

"Trade and fairness issues are going to be one point of contention, but overall this creates more opportunities for the two countries to cooperate."

TAIWAN

Alexander Huang, strategic studies professor, Tamkang University, Taipei

"Obama will not just sit back and force American policy. China will feel they have a bigger voice in terms of discussing issues with the U.S. government. For Taiwan, (Obama's policy) depends primarily on who will be secretary of state and secretary of defence, whether they are people who are familiar with Asia or the China issue. Of course there are Taiwan supporters in the Democratic camp, so we hope Obama will appoint some to key positions in Asian affairs."

PAKISTAN

Shamshad Ahmed Khan, a former Pakistani foreign secretary:

"The whole world has been hooked on this presidential election, more than ever, the reason being the havoc the current incumbent president has played with the world over the past eight years.

"Everybody wants change in America's policies. Terrorism is an issue that is above party politics in Washington.

"Unfortunately, Pakistan finds itself in the eye of the storm so naturally Washington's policy focus will remain on Pakistan.

"There might be a nuanced change in application of that policy focus and that change will be in keeping with the Democratic philosophy, the conceptual approach compared with the beligerant attitude of the outgoing administration.

"Democrats have always behaved with restraint and engagement, they believe in engagement.

"Now that we have a democratic government in Pakistan, I'm sure the new president will shift the focus from direct military strikes and operations to greater political and economic engagement.

INDIA

C. Uday Bhaskar, strategic analyst in New Delhi:

"While Mr Obama represents change in the U.S., for the U.S.-India bilateral relationship, the big change has already taken place over the nuclear issue." (The Bush administration reached an agreement with India over nuclear energy cooperation). "India-United States relations till recently were shaped by the nuclear issue, the next big ticket item is countering terrorism and state support to this phenomenon."

SOUTH KOREA

Kim Sung-Han, professor of international relations at Korea University in Seoul:

"For the past several years, the Bush administration was preoccupied with Iraq and the Middle East. In the meantime, China has approached Southeast Asia and has been established as the champion of Asian multilateralism and regionalism.

"Obama needs to pay more attention to Asia. He will put more emphasis on Asian policy, particularly the regionalist policy. And the other (priorities) are pretty obvious such as China, Japan and South Korean policy, with China being high on the agenda."

Chun Bong-geun, expert at Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security in Seoul, affiliated with the Foreign Ministry, said progress was expected in negotiations on the nuclear issue and also for Korea peace talks.

"Looking from his reaction to terrorism delisting, Obama has indicated a more active engagement in dialogue with North Korea. For him, dialogue itself is not an incentive and reward for the North, as it was for Bush and even Clinton, but dialogue is meant to solve problems.

"But if Obama tries to focus on human rights, dialogue could get bogged down again."

- - - - (Editing by Nick Macfie)


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