RPT-Experts meet on U.N. report but time running out
30 Apr 2007 03:28:16 GMT Source: Reuters
(Repeating to additional subscribers) By David Fogarty BANGKOK, April 30 (Reuters) - After two gloomy U.N. reports on global warming, scientists and governments on Monday begin looking at how to fight climate change, with green groups saying the world has the means to cut emissions at little cost. As experts meet in Bangkok to review the latest U.N. report, a draft of solutions to be issued on Friday after review by more than 100 nations warns that time for inexpensive fixes is running out because of a surge in greenhouse gas emissions. The survey is the third this year by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The U.N. climate panel issued its first report in February saying it was at least 90 percent certain that mankind was to blame for warming. The second report on April 6 warned of more hunger, droughts, heatwaves and rising seas. Green groups say the time for bickering by governments is over. "It is crystal clear that we can cut emissions to well below today's levels by shifting from carbon-heavy fuels like coal to clean and efficient energy," said Hans Verolme, director of the WWF's Global Climate Change Programme. "But if governments fail to act, people will experience the damage, and that goes beyond sterile economic figures," he added in a statement on Monday. The report estimates that stabilising greenhouse gas emissions will cost between 0.2 percent and 3.0 percent of world gross domestic product by 2030, depending on the stiffness of curbs on rising emissions of greenhouse gases. Under some scenarios, GDP growth might even get a tiny net spur from less pollution and health damage from burning fossil fuels, blamed as the main cause of warming. The draft says: "There is a significant economic potential for the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions from all sectors over the coming decades, sufficient to offset growth of global emissions or to reduce emissions below current levels." SOBERING REPORTS The conclusions broadly back those by former World Bank chief economist Nicholas Stern, who estimated last year that costs of acting now to slow warming were about one percent of global output -- 5 to 20 percent if the world delayed action. "We're moving from two very sobering reports to what we can do about climate change. And we can do it," Achim Steiner, the head of the U.N. Environment Programme, told Reuters last week. "Having shown us the path towards greater and greater problems the IPCC raises our horizons to where the solutions lie and shows that they are within our grasp," he told Reuters. More than 1,000 amendments have been proposed to the draft 24-page summary for policymakers. Some countries complain that is hard to understand and too laden with scientific jargon. The report lays out solutions such as capturing and burying emissions from coal-fired power plants, a shift to renewable energies such as solar and wind power, more use of nuclear power, more efficient lighting and insulation of buildings. But it says that temperatures will rise by at least 2 to 2.4 Celsius (3.6 - 4.2F) above pre-industrial levels even under the most stringent curbs. The European Union says a 2 C rise is a threshold for "dangerous" changes to the climate system. The big question is whether governments will act. "I'm optimistic but I don't think it will be straightforward," Steiner said. "There are still many who don't understand the complexity of the issue and hoping that it will somehow go away." A vice-chair of the IPCC said last week that it might take more disasters such as Hurricane Katrina that battered New Orleans in 2005 to spur politicians to do more. "The push for greater mitigation will come through catastrophes and other extreme events," Mohan Munasinghe told Reuters in an interview in Colombo on Friday. (Additional reporting by Alister Doyle in Oslo and John Ruwitch in Colombo) (Editing by Bill Tarrant; Reuters messaging: rm://david.fogarty.reuters.com@reuters.net; email: david.fogarty@reuters.com, telephone: +65 6870 3815))
