FACTBOX-Moves North Korea could make to further raise tensions
04 Jun 2009 11:11:37 GMT Source: Reuters
For related story, please click [ID:nSEO248756] By Jack Kim SEOUL, June 4 (Reuters) - A North Korean patrol boat beat briefly entered South Korean waters but retreated after a verbal warning, Yonhap news agency quoted South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff as saying. North Korea raised tensions by testing a nuclear device late last month and appears ready to test a long-range missile that could reach U.S. territory and mid-range missiles that can hit all of South Korea and most of Japan. Following are other provocations North Korea could make, especially if the U.N. Security Council imposes new and tougher sanctions against the communist state over the nuclear test. FIRE AN INTERCONTINENTAL BALLISTIC MISSILE North Korea threatened to do this in the same sentence that it warned of a nuclear test on April 29 unless the Security Council apologised for imposing earlier sanctions. It test-fired a rocket in April in what was widely seen as a disguised test of a long-range missile it is developing that is capable of striking U.S. territory. CONDUCT MORE NUCLEAR TESTS North Korea needs more tests to develop a functioning nuclear weapon with warheads that would go off in a controlled manner and be compact enough to mount on a missile. It needs several more tests to be able to miniaturise a weapon that could be mounted on a warhead, but could shorten the development time if it acquired technology from others, experts say. More testing is risky for North Korea because it depleted its meagre stockpile of fissile material and parts of its Yongbyon plant that makes plutonium were dismantled under a disarmament deal. PICK A BORDER GUNFIGHT A shoot-out along the Demilitarised Zone border with South Korea could easily ignite a broader battle involving many of the more than one million troops who are deployed on both sides of the buffer zone set up after the 1950-53 Korean War. The possibility of North Korea picking a fight with the South has increased after Seoul announced on Tuesday it would join a U.S.-led initiative to intercept shipments suspected of trading in weapons of mass destruction. North Korea has initiated deadly naval clashes off the peninsula's west coast before and could do it again. Naval conflict could now involve short-range missiles, more of which have been deployed on its west coast. ALL-OUT WAR This is unlikely. Analysts say an all-out war would bring an end to Kim Jong-il's government, cause enormous destruction on the peninsula, and perhaps in Japan as well. It could trigger a new and deep economic and financial crisis in the region, which has already been sucked into the global economic downturn. U.S. military commanders in South Korea have said U.S. and South Korean forces would be able to quickly defeat the North. TROUBLE FOR DETAINED JOURNALISTS North Korea put two U.S. journalists on Tiral on Thursday, after holding them for several months on suspicion of entering its territory for what it said were hostile acts. Analysts said the North has been using the two as pawns and their fate may depend on whether Pyongyang wants to further antagonise Washington. (Editing by Bill Tarrant)
War veterans from South Korea chant slogans during a rally denouncing North Korea's nuclear test and its missile launch at the War Memorial of Korea in Seoul June 4, 2009. The ...
