Reuters AlertNet Full site
Homepage | Newsdesk | NGO Latest | Crisis briefings | Country profiles | MediaWatch | Jobs | Alerting | Login

NEWSDESK

FACTBOX-Latest assessments of Thailand risk ratings
03 Dec 2008 02:06:07 GMT
 Source: Reuters
Dec 3 (Reuters) - Thailand's anti-government People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) has promised to end its blockade of Bangkok's airports after a court ruling disbanded the ruling party backed by deposed Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

Following is a round-up of political and country risk assessments for Thailand in the wake of the recent turmoil:

IHS GLOBAL INSIGHT

IHS Global Insight downgraded its political risk rating for Thailand to 3.25 from 3 on Tuesday, and its security risk rating to 3.5 from 3.25.

"This reflects the suspension of political process and the heightened risk of military intervention, as well as widespread concerns of civil unrest," said analyst Kristina Kazmi.

She noted Thailand remains locked in a "cycle of instability" -- new elections would probably again hand a majority to proxies of Thaksin, given his strong backing from the rural population. This could lead PAD to resume protests.

"Thailand remains locked in this structurally flawed system for the foreseeable future," she said.

"To all intents and purposes, Thailand does not have a functioning government. The risk of civil unrest is growing, and with it, the accompanying risk of military intervention. The heightened possibility of a coup is reflected in the downgrading of Thailand's political risk rating...

"If the parliament does indeed elect a prime minister the PAD does not approve of, the same cycle of protests and deadlock will start again. In that case, a military coup seems almost inevitable, particularly as civilian-military relations remain extremely weak. In any case, it appears increasingly likely that the elite will win out over the rural majority."

EURASIA GROUP

"New elections are now more likely, but the fundamental conflict between allies and supporters of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and the Bangkok middle class and elite remains intact," Eurasia Group analyst David Kiu said in a research note.

"The king could broker a resolution, and may comment on the situation in his birthday eve speech on 4 December, but he has been unusually quiet during this current chapter of Thailand's political crisis, suggesting that he prefers to reserve his political capital for a better opportunity."

INTERNATIONAL COUNTRY RISK GUIDE

Editor-in-Chief Christopher McKee says ICRG has consistently been downgrading Thailand's political stability ratings since late 2006, in particular its "government stability" rating, which focuses on whether the government is able to implement its major policy goals, and was downgraded to "high risk" in April 2007.

"Ultimately, the problem with Thailand ... is that there is a class divide, largely between urban (bureaucratic elite and middle class) and rural elements of society, that appears irreconcilable for the moment, and which has played itself out in the demonstrations of the past several months, culminating in the judicial ruling," McKee told Reuters.

"Looking ahead, we will be increasing the risk associated with the military's involvement in Thai politics to ensure a modicum of stability.

"The underlying sources of instability will not dissipate soon, since, inter alia, we see many in the now-banned political parties simply re-organising themselves within different political vehicles. In other words, the anti-Thaksin forces have won a battle but the larger conflict is far from over."

ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT

The EIU's expectations for Thai economic performance and political stability have not dramatically worsened over the past week, analyst Jacob Hamstra said.

"But this is largely because they had already fallen dramatically in the past month (for the economy) and over the past two years or so (regarding the political situation).

"Our assessment has for quite some time been that ending Thailand's political crisis will require a solution to the power struggle between the royalist bureaucratic elite and the urban middle class on one side and Thaksin's supporters on the other.

"In turn, we have been and continue to be quite pessimistic about the prospects of such a resolution occurring in the short- to medium-term."

The EIU cut its 2009 Thai growth forecast in November to 1.9 percent from 3.8 percent.

Its country risk score has risen to 50 in December from 48 in June, due to an uptick in economic risks. The political risk score has remained steady at 65 over the past 6 months.

STANDARD & POOR'S

Standard & Poor's downgraded its sovereign outlook on Thailand to negative from stable on Monday.

"The recent occupation of the two airports in Bangkok by anti-government protesters has increased the risks to sovereign creditworthiness," said analyst Kim Eng Tan.

"It has caused serious disruptions to economic activities in the kingdom and raises the possibility of widespread violence markedly. These developments will add to the negative pressures of a global slowdown on Thailand's economy. "The sovereign ratings could be lowered if economic performance weakens sharply as a result," Kim said, adding that the outlook could return to stable if political divisions were resolved "peacefully in a sustained manner".

FITCH RATINGS OUTLOOK

Fitch downgraded Thailand's sovereign outlook to negative from stable on Monday.

"The revision to the outlook is based on Fitch's view that the extended period of political turmoil surrounding Thailand's leadership shows no sign of resolution, and may undermine Thai sovereign credit fundamentals, especially as the global economy enters recession," said sovereign group associate director Vincent Ho.

"It is a concern that, in the absence of effective and credible political leadership, economic policy could be either neglected or ineffective at a time when policy stimulus is likely required to address a sharp economic correction."

MOODY'S INVESTOR SERVICES OUTLOOK

Moody's has so far left its stable outlook for Thailand unchanged.

"With the Constitutional Court's ruling there is an end in sight to the Bangkok international airport shut down. But is is difficult to see an end to the destructive political polarisation in Thailand," said Tom Byrne, sovereign regional credit officer.

"We think the events of the past week will damage Thailand's near-term economic outlook and complicate policy making at a time when the government needs to respond coherently to the global recession. Should the political discord of the past two years continue, most likely Thailand's long-run competitiveness will also be damaged."


AlertNet news is provided by
Email this article       Send comments

Latest news

•  FACTBOX-Latest assessments of Thailand risk ratings

•  Protesters pack up at Bangkok airports, airlines ready

•  Bangkok intl airport to resume partial service on Thurs

•  Thai court bans PM, airport siege to end

•  Thai court ruling fails to end political stand-off

MORE >>

AlertNet news is provided by

Background information

Facts & figures
Thailand

Related articles

Breaking stories
 FACTBOX-Latest assessments of Thailand risk ratings (1 minute ago)

Protesters pack up at Bangkok airports, airlines ready (1 minute ago)

AlertNet insight
 Fighting the spread of HIV among Bangkok's addicts (1 minute ago)

Blogs
 THAILAND: 'No regrets over cheap AIDS drugs' - ex-health chief (1 minute ago)

Maps
 Tropical storm Noul (1 minute ago)


Del.icio.us Del.icio.us  |   Digg Digg  |   NewsVine NewsVine  |   Reddit Reddit   
Thumb for /thefacts/imagerepository/RTRPICT/2008-11-21T072039Z_01_BAN201_RTRIDSP_2_THAILAND-PROTEST_mainimage.jpg|/thenews/pictures/BAN201.htm
Thumb for /thefacts/imagerepository/RTRPICT/2008-11-21T071939Z_01_BAN202_RTRIDSP_2_THAILAND-PROTEST_mainimage.jpg|/thenews/pictures/BAN202.htm
Thumb for /thefacts/imagerepository/RTRPICT/2008-11-20T104145Z_01_BAN207_RTRIDSP_2_THAILAND-PROTEST_mainimage.jpg|/thenews/pictures/BAN207.htm
Thumb for /thefacts/imagerepository/RTRPICT/2008-11-20T103111Z_01_BAN206_RTRIDSP_2_THAILAND-PROTEST_mainimage.jpg|/thenews/pictures/BAN206.htm
Thumb for /thefacts/imagerepository/RTRPICT/2008-11-20T051652Z_01_BAN01_RTRIDSP_2_THAILAND_mainimage.jpg|/thenews/pictures/BAN01.htm

A man gestures from the window of a bus in Bangkok November 21, 2008. Thailand's public sector unions will begin a nationwide strike on Tuesday unless the government quits, union leaders ...


More pictures | Galleries
Disclaimers |  Copyright |  Privacy |  Contact Us |  Feedback |  About Us |  RSS XML

Last updated:Wed Dec 3 02:07:45 2008