(Refiles to insert dropped letter in paragraph 1) By James Grubel CANBERRA, Nov 27 (Reuters) - Australia's plan for a sweeping carbon trade scheme remains in doubt with a growing number of opposition lawmakers threatening to block the proposed law in parliament. A vote planned for Friday is now in doubt. The carbon trade scheme is Prime Minister Kevin Rudd's key climate change policy and is at the centre of Australia's promise to cut greenhouse emissions by between 5 and 25 percent by 2020. The carbon-trade legislation is stalled in a hostile upper house Senate, where the government needs seven of the 37 opposition votes to pass the package of 11 carbon trade bills.[ID:nSYD148584] Here are the possible outcomes for the package, which was defeated a first time in the Senate in August. WILL THE LAWS PASS ON FRIDAY? * The government wants the laws passed by late Friday, but that is looking increasingly unlikely due to chaos in opposition parties. * Opposition leader Malcolm Turnbull and his climate negotiator Ian Macfarlane believe they still have the numbers in the Senate to deliver a majority to the government on the bills. Turnbull warns defeat of the laws would leave the opposition a party of climate sceptics. * But any move to curtail the drawn-out debate and force a vote may encourage more opposition Senators to abandon their support for the draft laws. * The numbers are finely balanced. All five junior opposition National Party senators will vote against the laws, and up to 15 opposition Liberal Party Senators may defy Turnbull and vote against the measure. * That leaves the government needing seven of the remaining 17 Liberal Senators to support the draft laws. WILL THE LAWS PASS NEXT WEEK? * Chances of the laws passing next week depend on whether Turnbull can survive a leadership challenge, likely early Monday. Turnbull survived one leadership challenge on Wednesday. * Leading conservative Tony Abbott has signalled he wants to challenge and he would be expected to gain wide support. * If Abbott or another candidate wins the leadership, the deal to pass the carbon laws would be scrapped. * If the opposition changes its leader, the government's only hope would be for seven Turnbull loyalists to vote against their party and honour the agreement with the government. WILL THERE BE AN ELECTION? * If the laws are rejected or postponed, Rudd will have a legal right to call a snap election at any time. Opinion polls show Rudd would easily win a second term, with an enlarged majority. * Rudd is a cautious politician and has repeatedly said he does not want an early election. The next election would normally be held in late 2010. * But Rudd could call an early election in February or March to cash in on his popularity and opposition disarray. Such an election would come at the end of a forecast very hot summer and bushfires, which would likely see voters keen for action on climate change. * An election victory would then allow him to push the carbon trade laws through a special joint sitting of parliament's upper and lower house, where he would be expected to have strong majority. For more on the carbon trade debate in Australia and New Zealand click on [ID:nCARBONAU]. For factbox on the scheme, click on [ID:nSYD493757]. For the latest Reuters Poll Trend analysis of opinion polls, click on [ID:nSYD415059]. ((Editing by Sanjeev Miglani;james.grubel@reuters.com; +612 6273 2730; Reuters Messaging: james.grubel.reuters.com@reuters.net)) ((If you have a query or comment on this story, send an email to news.feedback.asia@thomsonreuters.com))
Greenpeace activists carry sacks of sand for damming a peatland river near Teluk Meranti village, in Pelalawan, Indonesia's Riau province November 10, 2009. Home to about 10 percent of the world's ...
