By Mark Bendeich SYDNEY, Nov 29 (Reuters) - Australia on Sunday fanned talk of a snap election over climate change, effectively setting a Monday deadline for lawmakers to approve its scheme to cut carbon emissions or risk the wrath of voters. Australia, the rich world's heaviest carbon polluter per head of population, wants to set up the most comprehensive cap-and-trade scheme outside Europe and to play a leading role in global climate-change talks set for Copenhagen next month. But the government's proposed cap-and-trade scheme is stuck in the upper House of parliament, where it has already been rejected once this year, and is set for a fiery conclusion at a special, extended sitting scheduled for Monday. "Delay is denial (of the legislation)," acting Prime Minister Julia Gillard said on Sunday, when asked about calls by some opposition lawmakers to delay a vote on the bill until next year. "This country cannot afford it," she said in a TV interview. If the legislation fails a second time in the Senate or is postponed, the government could have a constitutional trigger to dissolve both houses of parliament and call an election to break the deadlock. The next election is not due until late 2010. The government scheme aims to cut Australian emissions by 5-25 percent by 2020 from 2000 levels, with the size of the cut depending on the global position agreed at Copenhagen. The scheme is being watched by other countries, including the world's second-largest greenhouse gas emitter, the United States. Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, now travelling abroad, has said repeatedly he does not want to call an early election and plans to run his full term, but there is increasing speculation that he will have little choice if the Senate refuses to pass his scheme. "If they can't get their deal through the Senate, I think Rudd will have to go to a double-dissolution because he has got to get the bill (through) one way or another," said Paul Kelly, former editor-in-chief of The Australian newspaper. OPPOSITION IN OPEN REVOLT The opposition is in open revolt over the government's scheme: its leader decided last week to support it but climate-change sceptics openly defied him, vowing to either oppose the legislation in the Senate or delay a vote into 2010. The government only needs the support of seven of the 32 senators from the main opposition Liberal Party for the bill to pass, but it is unclear how the opposition vote will play out. Opposition leader Malcolm Turnbull agreed last week to back the scheme in return for extra government concessions for the farming, coal and power industries, triggering resignations from his shadow front bench and open challenges to his leadership. If Turnbull is replaced by a climate-change sceptic, even opposition MPs who believe in cutting carbon emissions may decide to withdraw support from the government's amended scheme in order to save their political careers inside the Liberal Party. But a vote on Turnbull's leadership is not set until Tuesday, a day after the government wants to force a Senate vote. Opposition sceptics are likely to attempt a filibuster on Monday, dragging debate through the night and into the next day when they hope the opposition will have a new leader. "We should delay it," opposition climate-change sceptic and possible leadership candidate Kevin Andrews said. "If that means talking it out, that means talking it out." A new opinion poll published on Sunday has emboldened the climate-change sceptics, with a Galaxy poll in the Sunday Telegraph showing that 60 percent of voters prefer the Senate to take more time to consider the government scheme and 80 percent felt the government had not explained its scheme well enough. But that contrasted with a poll published on Saturday showing the opposition would suffer a humiliating loss if it torpedoed the scheme and Rudd called a snap election on climate change. For the latest Reuters Poll Trend analysis of opinion polls, click on [ID:nSYD415059]. For more on the carbon trade debate in Australia and New Zealand click on [ID:nCARBONAU]. For factbox on the scheme, click on [ID:nSYD493757]. (Editing by Nick Macfie) ((mark.bendeich@thomsonreuters.com; +612 9373 18166; Reuters Messaging: jmark.bendeich.reuters.com@reuters.net)) ((If you have a query or comment on this story, send an email to news.feedback.asia@thomsonreuters.com))
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