Japan emissions to rise, reaching Kyoto goals hard
10 Aug 2007 04:08:54 GMT Source: Reuters
(Adds quotes) By Elaine Lies TOKYO, Aug 10 (Reuters) - Japan's greenhouse gas emissions are set to rise over the next few years and officials say meeting Kyoto protocol targets may be difficult without new policy steps. Among measures being debated are mandatory carbon trading targets for companies -- similar to European Union cap-and-trade style laws, but some business groups are strongly opposed. Japan, home of the ancient city that gave its name to the Kyoto Protocol, has proposed halving global emissions by 2050. But Tokyo is struggling to meet its own target of cutting emissions by 6 percent over the 2008-2012 period. Its emissions were 14 percent above the goal as of March 2006. Japan's emissions are forecast to rise by 0.9 percent in the fiscal year ending in March 2011 and are likely to increase 0.9-2.1 percent from 1990, according to an interim report issued on Friday by a government advisory panel. That means Japan would have to cut emissions by more than an additional 20 million tonnes, perhaps as much as 34 million tonnes, to meet its goals. "These numbers are quite tough, so we need to have a real sense of urgency," a trade ministry official told reporters before the report was released. "We can't be too optimistic, but we can't be too pessimistic either." Of particular concern are sectors such as households, whose emissions are likely to rise 13-16 percent, and offices, with emissions seen up 29-31 percent, the report said. "It goes without saying that all sectors have to make further efforts to cut emissions, but policies for these sectors will have to be comprehensively strengthened," it said. But some analysts said drastic measures may be needed. "Without introducing policies like cap-and-trade and credit buying from overseas, it's close to impossible for Japan to meet its goals simply through new domestic policies," said Kuniyuki Nishimura, a research director at Mitsubishi Research Institute. RAISING PUBLIC CONSCIOUSNESS Shipping emissions were likely to rise by 13 to 15 percent. The only improvement was expected to be in the industry sector, where emissions were seen falling by 9.1 percent. No specific measures were mentioned in the report, but the government of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe hopes to raise public consciousness and has targeted households with a campaign of "One person, one kg of C02 reduction a day". More detailed policies may be included in the committee's final report, due out in December. Among proposals under discussion is the introduction of a system of mandatory company carbon trading similar to that now used by the European Union. Under this system, which targets power firms and other large energy consumers, each company is given an emissions ceiling and is required to report its emissions to the government each year. If a firm exceeds its limits, it is required to purchase carbon credits equal to the excess amount. But opposition to the plan is strong among some business groups, which have dragged their heels on other proposals such as a carbon tax out of concern about their economic impact, and the trade official said it was hard to know if the proposal would be included in a final report later this year. Environment Minister Masatoshi Wakabayashi reiterated Tokyo's determination to fulfill its pledges, noting that Japan will be hosting the Group of Eight summit next year. "If people get the sense that Japan can't meet its goals, the government ability to ask for support for its policies may be diminished," he told reporters.
